60 meter asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032
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A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth in December of 2032. The asteroid is estimated to be 196 feet (60 meters) wide, and it is currently 27 million miles away.
The near-Earth object (NEO) discovered in 2024, which is around half as wide as a football field is long, will make a very close approach to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. It’s estimated to come within around 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on that day, according to NASA’s Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). However, when orbital uncertainties are considered, that close approach could turn out to be a direct hit on our planet.
Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an “airburst,” or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground.
“Odds have slightly increased to 1 in 83,” Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin wrote on BlueSky. “This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever.”
The asteroid is rated three on the Torino risk scale, which indicates a close encounter that warrants close attention from astronomers and an over 1% chance of impact.
Where could asteroid 2024 YT4 hit Earth?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially found by a NASA-funded project called ATLAS, using the project’s telescope located in Rio Hurtado, Chile. Rankin was then able to recover the asteroid from data collected by the Catalina Sky Survey. Rankin added that, currently, the “risk corridor” for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
“It is likely around the same size as the 1908 Tunguska rock or the Meteor Crater rock,” Rankin said. “So, while impact effects would be more localized than regional, it certainly has the potential to do serious damage to the area it hits.”
Tunguska is currently the largest recorded asteroid strike event in human history.
Releasing the same energy as the detonation of up to 50 million tons of TNT when it exploded in the atmosphere over a sparsely populated region of Russia, the blast flattened an estimated 80 million trees over an area of 830 square miles ( 2,150 square km) and possibly killed three people.
“If [asteroid 2024 YT4] is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground,” Rankin said. “If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical.”
