Temperatures have never reached 40C in the UK but for the first time ever forecast computer models have shown it could be possible for mid-July.
According to the latest modelling, large parts of the South East could also hit 39C.
The highest ever temperature in the UK was recorded on 25 July 2019, when Cambridge Botanic Garden hit 38.7C.
Before that, it was 38.5C, recorded at Faversham in Kent in August 2003.
The prediction has been met with a “mix of shock and surprise” by forecasters, who say it is actually very unlikely to happen – at least this summer.
“Nobody can recall 40C appearing in a major global forecast system for the UK,” said Simon Lee, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University.
“Especially when this forecast was also predicting temperatures over 39C over a huge area of South East England.
“Given that the UK’s previous hottest days have only seen a few places exceed 38C, this was unlike anything forecasters had ever seen before.”
However, it should be noted that this prediction has come from a single member of one ensemble forecast system.
Such systems are designed to capture a range of possible outcomes by running a model many times and producing a set of forecasts.
Predictions are seen to be more likely if more members of the set have the same one.
“All the factors have to align perfectly for the UK to attain 40C,” said Dr Lee.
“While it is possible, it’s extremely unlikely, even if the risk is the highest it’s ever been.
“For example, for the weekend of 16/17 July 2022, most forecasts are in the low-to-mid 30s, and there are just as many forecasts showing maxima not much above 20C as there are showing 40C.”
Photo – A woman with two Siberian husky dogs paddles in the water at Southend beach during hot and sunny weather in Southend, Essex, Britain. EPA-EFE/VICKIE FLORES
