By Gabriela Baczynska
GRANADA, Spain, Oct 6 (Reuters) – The European Union’s 27 national leaders meet on Friday to look for ways to avoid a new migration crisis and address a longer-term existential challenge of bringing into their bloc new countries, potentially as big and troubled as Ukraine.
Italy and Spain have voiced concern over irregular immigration increasing this year to their islands, while Greek waters in June were the site of Europe’s deadliest shipwreck in years, one that killed hundreds of migrants.
Germany, the preferred destination country for many of the migrants reaching Europe, has introduced border checks, saying they are needed to crack down on smugglers bringing people to its territory.
That decision came after Germany reported a nearly 80% rise in asylum requests so far this year, a concern for the centre-left ruling coalition facing a challenge from the far-right in local elections in Bavaria on Oct. 8.
Neighbouring Poland will hold a national election a week later, on Oct. 15.
Warsaw refuses to host new arrivals from the Middle East and Africa, although Poland has given shelter to several million Ukrainians who fled Russia’s invasion.
Other central and eastern EU countries have also put up border controls inside what is normally a zone of open travel, citing the need to crack down on people smugglers and migrants who avoid regular border crossings and arrival procedures.
The top migration official in the EU, home to 450 million people, last week said there had been 250,000 such arrivals so far this year – still far below 2015, when more than 1 million people made it across the sea, overwhelming the bloc.
But the matter is politically sensitive and anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies are on the rise in some EU countries ahead of continent-wide European Parliament elections next June.
‘GEO-STRATEGIC INVESTMENT’
Meeting in Grenada, Spain, the 27 will also discuss the strategic path for the EU after years marred by crises, from the COVID pandemic to Russia’s war in Ukraine to the 2022 energy crunch, and marked by challenges including climate change and economic rivalry with China.
Countries keen to join the bloc include Ukraine, Moldova and some in the Western Balkans. They all must meet numerous requirements to qualify, meaning accession talks take years. In 2020, Britain became the first ever country to leave the bloc.
From economic aid transfers to decision-making to maintaining cohesion, EU leaders will look on Friday at what needs to change inside their union to allow for another enlargement.
A tussle between Kyiv and Warsaw over Ukrainian grain exports gives a flavour of the challenges related to integrating a large and relatively poor country, let alone one at war.
In another example of the difficult trade-offs around bringing Ukraine closer to the bloc, sources told Reuters the EU executive is considering unlocking billions of euros for Hungary that had been frozen over rule-of-law concerns in a bid to lift Budapest’s veto on more support for Kyiv.
Such debates highlight a tough dilemma the EU faces in trying to bring in new members while deepening existing integration.
“The future of our aspiring members and their citizens lies within the European Union,” the leaders are due to say, according to their draft joint statement, which was seen by Reuters.
“Enlargement is a geo-strategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity … both the EU and future member states need to be ready.”
EU leaders will discuss these topics at their summit on Friday:
DE-RISKING
The bloc wants to limit its dependency for certain strategic products, particularly those required for its green transition such as lithium used in electric vehicle batteries or rare earths found in wind turbine magnets.
China now processes nearly 90% of rare earth elements and 60% of lithium globally.
The European Union wants instead to boost domestic extraction, recycling and processing of critical raw material needs by 2030 and ensure no third countries provide more than 65% of any one key mineral.
The EU repeats that de-risking does not mean decoupling from China, but says it has learned a tough lesson from relying on Russia for natural gas and then being cut off after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
EU wariness towards China has grown due to Beijing’s subsequent closer ties with Moscow. At the same time, the EU’s trade deficit with China has widened to 400 billion euros ($420 billion), double the level of five years ago.
China now requires exporters to secure licences to ship some gallium and germanium products used to make semiconductors.
EU also relied on China during the COVID pandemic for protective equipment and now for medicines and pharmaceutical raw materials.
ECONOMIC SECURITY STRATEGY
A reassessment of risk due to rising geopolitical tensions is also a key part of the European Economic Security Strategy unveiled in June.
The strategy focuses on risks to supply chain resilience, physical and cyber security of critical infrastructure, technology security and leakage and weaponisation of economic dependencies or economic coercion.
The European Commission has proposed carrying out risk assessments of these areas. To mitigate risks, the EU might invest to boost its own competitiveness or forge partnerships with a broad range of countries.
It can also opt for protective measures, including the Anti-Coercion Instrument cleared by lawmakers on Tuesday or impose controls on exports or investments in third countries.
The Commission has recommended assessments for a list of four technologies – advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum and biotechnology. It has pointed to potential risks that they are put to military use or used in human rights abuses by “countries of concern”.
The EU executive stresses the assessments will be “country agnostic”. However, while the economic strategy does not name China, it talks of partnering with link-minded countries and de-risking, its policy of reducing reliance on China.
The assessments should be completed by the end of the year. The Commission could then propose measures, such as on outbound investment.
The Commission may also propose in early 2024 assessing a further six technology fields – including in energy, robotics and space.
The economic strategy also envisages a review of a now patchy screening system for foreign investments in the EU, a proposal to make export controls more effective and measures to improve research security.
The strategy will involve a delicate balancing act for the Commission because national security is a competence of the EU’s 27 individual members.
While most recognise the need for a harmonised strategy, particularly because the EU has a common trade policy, many are reluctant to transfer power to Brussels.
The Commission, which oversees EU trade policy, has said the strategy, including the assessments, will be carried out with EU governments.
