In a move raising alarm in Europe, Russia is reportedly relocating military resources from its Syrian base at Tartus to Libya, a shift Italy’s defense minister has described as a growing threat to central Mediterranean security.
“Moscow is transferring resources from its Syrian base at Tartus to Libya,” Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told La Repubblica, an Italian daily. “That is not a good thing. Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern, and even more so if instead of being 1,000 kilometers away, they are two steps from us,” he warned.
This development follows the retreat of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad to Russian-controlled strongholds in Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase, as rebel forces gained ground. Satellite imagery shows Russian warships previously docked at Tartus have departed, fueling speculation that Moscow might shift its naval presence to Libya. Tobruk, in eastern Libya, is viewed as a potential destination, where Russia has been negotiating a deal to use the port with local leader General Khalifa Haftar.
Losing Tartus would deprive Russia of a strategic naval base in the Mediterranean, making Libya a key alternative.
Libya: A Strategic Pivot
Analysts suggest Russia has already intensified its activity in Libya. Jalel Harchaoui of the Royal United Services Institute noted a spike in Russian flights to Libya, with cargo planes arriving from Belarus and Russia directly. While there is no confirmed evidence of naval deployments, Harchaoui emphasized the significance of Libya in Russia’s broader military strategy.
“Even if Russia maintains a presence in Syria, it is a downgrade. Libya could serve as a replacement,” Harchaoui explained. He warned that a Russian naval base in Tobruk would be a “brazen gesture” towards NATO and the U.S., potentially escalating tensions.
Ben Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, expressed little surprise at Russia’s pivot to Libya. “They have been courting Haftar for scenarios like this,” he noted. Fishman urged the U.S. to disclose any evidence of Russian military buildup to counter Moscow’s actions.
Haftar, who controls Libya’s eastern region through his Libyan National Army (LNA), has engaged with both U.S. and Russian officials. U.S. envoy Jeremy Berndt recently met with Haftar’s sons to maintain diplomatic channels. However, Libya expert Mohamed Eljarh observed that Russia’s presence in Libya has so far relied on informal agreements rather than formal treaties, suggesting Moscow’s influence may still face limits.
“Haftar has a history of resisting Russian overtures when certain lines are crossed,” Eljarh said, adding that reports of Russian naval movements may be exaggerated.
Any significant Russian military presence in Libya would also require Turkey’s acquiescence, given its military support for Libya’s Tripoli-based government. Claudia Gazzini, a Libya expert at the Crisis Group, emphasized that Turkish-Russian dynamics could be pivotal. “You would need Turkish acquiescence here,” she said. “I cannot imagine the Turks and Russians have not discussed the matter.”
Implications for Mediterranean Security
As Russian assets potentially shift closer to Europe’s shores, Italy and NATO allies are monitoring developments closely. The growing competition for influence in Libya underscores the Mediterranean’s strategic importance and raises the specter of heightened tensions between Russia, NATO, and regional powers like Turkey.
With Moscow’s moves under scrutiny and uncertainty surrounding Haftar’s alignment, the coming months could define a new geopolitical landscape in the central Mediterranean.
Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, leader of the Tripoli-based UN-recognized government, strongly opposed the development. “We reject any attempt to turn Libya into a center for major-power conflicts,” Dabaiba said. “No one with an ounce of patriotism wants a foreign power to impose its hegemony and authority on the country and the people.”
Dabaiba emphasized his concerns over Libya becoming a battleground for international rivalries, warning that foreign military escalation could exacerbate the country’s already fragile internal situation. He stated that his government had contacted Russia’s ambassador to Libya to demand an explanation for the alleged military buildup.
