In the aftermath of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s ousting, Russia has redirected its military focus to Libya, conducting a series of flights to a desert airbase in eastern Libya. This strategic pivot underscores Moscow’s intent to maintain influence in the Mediterranean while expanding its reach into Africa.
For nearly a decade, Russia relied on Syria’s Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility to project power in the Mediterranean. However, the upheaval in Syria has necessitated a recalibration. Libya, a nation embroiled in conflict, has emerged as a critical focal point for Russia’s efforts. Flight-tracking data reveals over one flight per day since mid-December from Hmeimim to al-Khadim airbase near Benghazi. These flights, involving Antonov AN-124 transport planes and Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft, are believed to carry advanced air defense systems and other military equipment.
U.S. and Western officials reported in early December that Russia had begun withdrawing substantial military assets from Syria. Satellite imagery captured Russian air defense systems prepared for transport shortly before these flights commenced. The relocation highlights Russia’s strategy to establish a presence in Libya, mitigating the challenges posed by Assad’s departure.
Russia’s intensified activities in Libya signal its broader geopolitical goals. Jalel Harchaoui, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, observed a significant increase in Russian aircraft movements between Syria, Libya, and Belarus. Historically, Hmeimim served as a hub for Russian operations in Africa, supporting activities in the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, and Burkina Faso. By solidifying its foothold in Libya, Russia seeks to sustain these operations despite challenges in Syria.
Geolocated video evidence indicates that some planes arriving at al-Khadim have continued to Bamako, Mali, where Russia has supplanted French influence. Analysts from the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project have identified this route as a new logistical corridor for Russia’s Africa Corps, a successor to the Wagner Group. Additionally, a secure compound near al-Khadim reportedly facilitates the transit of Russian personnel to other African regions.
Deputy Russian Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has fostered ties with Libyan strongman Gen. Khalifa Haftar through multiple visits. This relationship may deepen further if Russia gains access to a Haftar-controlled port, potentially replacing Tartus as a key naval facility.
NATO Alarmed by Russian Moves
Russia’s growing presence in Libya has drawn concern from NATO nations. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto cautioned that Russian ships and submarines positioned closer to Europe represent a heightened threat. NATO’s 32-member alliance is closely monitoring developments in Tobruk and Benghazi.
Russia’s ability to deploy naval vessels to Tobruk remains constrained by the war in Ukraine, which limits the movement of its Black Sea fleet. Analysts suggest that Russia’s cautious approach avoids provoking a premature NATO response.
Challenges and Uncertainties
Despite these advances, Libya poses significant challenges as a substitute for Syria. Russian transport routes to Libya require Turkish cooperation for overflight rights, granting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a key bargaining chip. Furthermore, Haftar’s unpredictable leadership and the absence of formal agreements with Russia could jeopardize their collaboration.
In Syria, interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has signaled a willingness to maintain ties with Russia, though Moscow’s operational comfort and stability under Assad are unlikely to return. Reduced troop levels and logistical downsizing will constrain Russian activities.
Even so, Moscow’s pivot to Libya demonstrates its resilience in pursuing African ambitions. While its logistical network has been strained, Russia’s strategic shift ensures it remains a formidable presence in the Mediterranean and beyond.
A file photo of a Russian An-124 inflight with two Sukhoi Su-27s of during the 2010 Moscow Victory Day Parade
Sources: CNN/Al Jazeera/Atlantic Council
