Here’s a look at how and why the new European and Canadian announcements to recognize a Palestinian State could be important:
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
U.N. partition plan in 1947 called for the creation of a Jewish state alongside a Palestinian state, but Palestinians and the wider Arab world rejected it because it would have given them less than half of the land even though Palestinians made up two-thirds of the population.
The Arab-Israeli war the following year left Israel with even more territory, Jordan in control of the West Bank and east Jerusalem, and Egypt in control of Gaza.
In the 1967 war, Israel seized all three territories, and decades of on-again, off-again peace talks have failed.
The United States, Britain and other Western countries have backed the idea of an independent Palestinian state existing alongside Israel as a solution to the Middle East’s most intractable conflict, but they insist Palestinian statehood should come as part of a negotiated settlement. There have been no substantive negotiations since 2009.
Though the recent declerations won’t be recognizing an existing state, just the possibility of one, the symbolism helps enhance the Palestinians’ international standing and heaps more pressure on Israel to open negotiations on ending the war.
What does recognising a Palestinian state mean?
Palestine is a state that does and does not exist.
It has a large degree of international recognition, diplomatic missions abroad and teams that compete in sporting competitions, including the Olympics.
But due to the Palestinians’ long-running dispute with Israel, it has no internationally agreed boundaries, no capital and no army. Due to Israel’s military occupation, in the West Bank, the Palestinian authority, set up in the wake of peace agreements in the 1990s, is not in full control of its land or people. Gaza, where Israel is also the occupying power, is in the midst of a devastating war.
Given its status as a kind of quasi-state, recognition is inevitably somewhat symbolic. It will represent a strong moral and political statement but change little on the ground.
But the symbolism is strong. As British Foreign Secretary David Lammy pointed out during his speech at the UN, “Britain bears a special burden of responsibility to support the two-state solution”.
He went on to cite the 1917 Balfour Declaration – signed by his predecessor as foreign secretary Arthur Balfour – which first expressed Britain’s support for “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people”.
But that declaration, Lammy said, came with a solemn promise “that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine”.
Supporters of Israel have often pointed out that Lord Balfour did not refer explicitly to the Palestinians or say anything about their national rights.
But the territory previously known as Palestine, which Britain ruled through a League of Nations mandate from 1922 to 1948, has long been regarded as unfinished international business.
Israel came into being in 1948, but efforts to create a parallel state of Palestine have foundered, for a multitude of reasons.
As Lammy said, politicians “have become accustomed to uttering the words ‘a two-state solution'”.
The phrase refers to the creation of a Palestinian state, alongside Israel, in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, broadly along the lines that existed prior to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
But international efforts to bring about a two-state solution have come to nothing and Israel’s colonisation of large parts of the West Bank, illegal under international law, has turned the concept into a largely empty slogan.
Who recognises Palestine as a state?
The State of Palestine is currently recognised by 147 of the UN’s 193 member states.
At the UN, it has the status of a “permanent observer state”, allowing participation but no voting rights.
With France and other countries including Malta and Canada also promising recognition in the coming weeks and assuming the UK does go ahead with recognition, Palestine will soon enjoy the support of four of the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (the other two being China and Russia).
This will leave the United States, Israel’s strongest ally by far, in a minority of one.
Washington has recognised the Palestinian Authority, currently headed by Mahmoud Abbas, since the mid-1990s but has stopped short of recognising an actual state.
Several US presidents have expressed their support for the eventual creation of a Palestinian state. But Donald Trump is not one of them. Under his two administrations, US policy has leaned heavily in favour of Israel.
Without the backing of Israel’s closest and most powerful ally, it is impossible to see a peace process leading to an eventual two-state solution.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF RECOGNITION?
While dozens of countries have recognized a Palestinian state, none of the major Western powers has done so, and it is unclear how much of a difference the recent declarations of recognition might make.
Even so, their recognition would mark a significant accomplishment for the Palestinians, who believe it confers international legitimacy on their struggle.
Little would likely change on the ground in the short term. Peace talks are stalled, and Israel’s hardline government has dug its heels in against Palestinian statehood.
