President Trump has been called many things by his detractors. Reckless is one of them. In the past week, however, he has shown an uncharacteristic amount of restraint. In recent weeks, he has rid himself of National Security Advisor John Bolton, one of the strongest supporters for using military force to achieve national aims in Washington D.C. Bolton has long called for regime change in Iran. With the US suffering from war fatigue with close to twenty years of war in Afghanistan, Iraq and other areas as part of the war on terror, a military intervention in Iran would be costly, difficult, and result in US casualties – and with signs the global and national economy are slowing down, the last thing Trump wants in the year before a general election is another potential problem.
Then, the recent attacks on major Saudi oil refineries, with alleged evidence pointing towards Iran (due to the sophistication and precision behind the targeting of these facilities), Trump passed the buck to Riyadh. He said that the US was “locked and loaded”, and would await Saudi Arabia’s conclusions on the perpetrator of the attack and the way forward. Many criticised him for effectively delegating US foreign policy decision making to an allied power. There is merit in this criticism. But Trump was, as he usually is, considering the domestic political angle – if he sought to take action at his own behest, and it were to come with US casualties, he would be attacked by his political base and the left. But if he were to await Saudi Arabia’s conclusions, and simply come to their aid if requested, expectations would be lower, and he would not have the burden of having launched a military campaign himself.
Iran has played its cards very well. By having their Houthi allies take credit for the attack on Saudi Arabia, it gave itself plausible deniability – at least in the eyes of the international public. Within a few days, it became apparent that the attacks on Saudi’s oil infrastructure was too sophisticated and precise for the Houthi drones that were allegedly used. Saudi Arabia certainly has the military hardware with which to hit Iran back – but it’s military history has been a mixed bag, and a war with Iran would be far more challenging than the conflict in Yemen which they currently prosecute along with several regional allies.
One might ask – what were Iran’s intentions with this military strike, if it was indeed them? One reason could be economic – Tehran is currently under a strong international sanctions regime, which prevents them from exporting oil in US dollars, thus depriving them of valuable revenue for their government’s coffers. By striking at Saudi Arabia, they could make the Kingdom feel a similar, albeit shorter-lived degree of economic and financial pain.
Another reason could be that Iran’s leaders calculated that the US and/or Saudi Arabia would not retaliate forcefully to any attack on the latter, given the nature of the attack and the aforementioned plausible deniability. They may have reasoned that Trump would not risk getting embroiled in a major conflict with his re-election campaign beginning in earnest in the months ahead.
Does this mean that the US & Saudi Arabia will not intervene militarily? No. It’s possible that they may seek to undertake a covert strike, such as through clandestine assets and/or cyber attacks on Iran’s military or nuclear infrastructure. Alternatively, a limited military strike is also possible, although would come with the risk of retaliation that may lead to a rapid escalation. This would lead to jitters in the global markets at a time in which it can ill-afford any more uncertainty.
Trump may be known for his over the top rhetoric, but he played it cool on this occasion. This event will be one that his Democratic opponents will watch closely, as it may come to shape the last few months of 2019, and the remainder of his Presidency. President Trump will need to tread carefully, as uncharacteristic of him as that is.
Matthew Bugeja is Ci Consulta’s GeoPolitical Advisor for Corporate Dispatch Pro
For more advisory on Geopolitical scenarios contact us on cd@corporateidgroup.com
