The governments in Rome and Paris are similar in many respects. Both found their way to power by railing against the political establishment. They promised to shake up the political system, and to put the people back at the centre of their platforms. They are both founding members of the European Union and have been allies since the end of the Second World War. There are similar approaches in their political communication styles, but generally speaking, this is where the similarities end.
Italy’s government is led by the far left Five Stars Movement led by the young Luigi Di Maio, who leads the government in conjunction with the League, headed by the far right fire brand Matteo Salvini. Together, they form an unusual marriage of convenience who have less to unify them than they do to divide them. But as their government is approaching the one year mark, the Italian government has found that their common mistrust of Brussels has kept the two sides together for the time being. Rome has butted heads with the European Commission over its national budget, and despite their initial intransigence, they grudgingly accepted to reduce their expenditure to fall more in line with EU financial rules. But whilst Italy may have failed to take on the EU, it has found more success in duelling with their French neighbours.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron has run into some trouble of late with his reform drive, finding stiff opposition in the form of the Yellow Jackets. They originally formed to oppose an increase in fuel prices, but have since come to symbolise a catch-all group with people from both sides of the political spectrum, who are united in their opposition to the French leader. Italy raised Macron’s ire when Luigi Di Maio met with leaders of the Yellow Jacket movement, and in France itself, no less. Di Maio sought to encourage the protestors, particularly with their intention to participate on the ballot for the European Parliamentary elections in May. This was, at least in part, a response to France’s criticism of the Italian government’s policy on the influx of migrants from North Africa. The stand off between the two became a microcosm in the battle for the soul of Europe – Eurocentric liberalism versus nationalistic populism.
The war of words between France and Italy has grown so pointed that France recalled its ambassador from Rome for “consultations”. Short of removing several or all diplomats from an embassy, this is one of the most aggressive diplomatic actions a country can take.
However, both France and Italy see in one another a proxy for a bigger battle they’re each fighting: Macron sees his battle of words against the Italian populists as an opportunity to show that populists in government do not deliver on their promises, and cannot hope to achieve half of what a liberal, open-minded government such as his can. With the European Parliament elections around the corner, his popularity rating currently hovering around 35%, and the Yellow Jacket movement showing no sign of abating; Macron can ill afford to look weak in the face of a challenge from the Italian populists.
From the Italians’ perspective, both the League and the Five Star movement have temporarily set aside their differences to focus on campaigning, albeit separately, for the European Parliament. Both wish to see the populist and euroskeptic/nationalist parties register gains in Brussels, which would slow the European integration project, if not begin to reverse the trend to return some powers back to national capitals. With Merkel seemingly on her way out, they see Macron as the face of Europe, and by weakening him at home, they may set the stage for Marine Le Pen’s euroskeptic and nationalist party to make some inroads domestically in the run to the 2022 French national elections. Whilst the election is still some ways off, Macron’s staggering drop in popularity since his election in 2017 gives Di Maio and Salvini some hope that their populist wave can capture another major European capital in the foreseeable future. Whether the current governing coalition in Rome will be in place at that time remains an open question.
The battle between Macron and Di Maio/Salvini is one which mirrors the battle in Europe at large – the liberal centrist facing off against the populist. With the populist parties already comprising some 25% of the European Parliament, the chances of them expanding that support to upwards of 30% are better than even. Should they supplant the Socialist and Democrats in popularity, it would not necessarily signify the end of cooperation within the Parliament, or indeed between the European institutions. The S&D and the European People’s Party along with the Liberals and Greens would continue to find common ground to push forward the centrist European political agenda.
All eyes will be focused on the battle of words between France and Italy, with their tussle representing the war for the soul of Europe. Will the centrist forces, represented by Macron, hold off the assault on Brussels-based cooperation by the populists represented by the current Italian government? The answer to that question will go some way in determining the viability of the European project in the first half of the 21stcentury.
Matthew Bugeja – Diplomatique.Expert
