A new EU Commission – but a new dawn? – Matthew Bugeja

The formation of the new European Commission seems to be coming together. Incoming Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has put together quite a good team of quality politicians with solid backgrounds, although not necessarily in their chosen portfolios. There is a lot of information to unpack here. But let’s focus on the perhaps the core point: what does the new-look Commission tell us about von der Leyen’s priorities?

 Quite a lot, actually. One thing which catches the eye immediately is her choice of previously-serving European Commissioners in Executive Vice President posts, which are meant to have more powers than those of standard Vice Presidents.

These three Executive VPs are:

● Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands (he’ll be overseeing the European Green Deal),

● Margrethe Vestager of Denmark (Competition and Digitalisation)

● Valdis Dombrovskis of Latvia (Economy and financial services)

These three individuals are key to highlighting what the new Commission will be focusing on in the next five years. Whilst every portfolio is certainly important, as they impact on the lives of each EU citizen in some form or other, von der Leyen would have assigned her highest priorities to her highest ranking staff members. In short, the focus will be on:

● Climate change and Europe’s response to it,

● Ensuring Europe can compete with other major economic powers on a level playing field, and continues to advance its digital competitiveness,

● And focusing on further advancements in European cooperation on economic initiatives, perhaps by pushing forward on the completion of the economic and monetary union, which includes a single market for access to financial services.

These priorities are well suited to tackle the challenges of the 21st century that Europe faces, perhaps, even more so than that of the outgoing Juncker Commission. However, these appointments are not happening in a vacuum, but rather, the EU will be facing a world in which global cooperation is reducing considerably, with the US, China and Russia each seeking to carve out their own spheres of influence once again, in a type of great power struggle we have not seen since the early 20th century, when colonialism was at its peak. The EU has, to date, found it difficult to compete with these powers on a strategic level, due in no small part by the limitations of their incrementalist approach to policy making.

The US has made it clear that it wishes to even the scales on trade, by reducing its imports and increasing its exports (which would weaken the strength of the US dollar globally, but that’s another matter entirely). China is expanding its economic and political influence through the One Belt, One Road Initiative, whilst simultaneously building up its military capabilities both on land and sea. Russia has made it clear that it it seeking to influence matters in its near abroad and in areas in which the former Soviet Union was quite active, such as Libya and Syria. To face these challenges, Europe will need to champion the multilateral order, and support global institutions in the way the US used to. However – should this fail, the new European Commission should be prepared to work towards unifying EU members around a common cause – to face the challenges posed by great power rivalry, and its impacts on trade, economics, and security amongst others. Easier said than done. But absolutely necessary.