Allies Confront Tougher Fight in Hormuz After Red Sea Setback

Western allies weighing how to secure the Strait of Hormuz are confronting a harsh lesson: a similar mission in the Red Sea cost billions and failed to stop Yemen’s Houthi attacks.

That earlier operation left four ships sunk, more than $1 billion in munitions spent, and a shipping route the industry still largely avoids. Now, attention has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, a far more critical and dangerous chokepoint.

Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the narrow waterway, which Iran has now effectively blocked. Unlike the Houthis, Tehran brings a far more sophisticated military capability, raising the stakes for any international response.

Oil prices have surged following Iranian threats and attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf, marking one of the most severe disruptions to global energy supplies on record. Analysts warn that unless the strait reopens, shortages will worsen, driving up costs for fuel, food and goods worldwide.

“There is no substitute for the Strait of Hormuz,” Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said during a livestream to the CERAWeek conference in Houston. “It is the world’s strait.”

At the United Nations, Security Council members are negotiating measures to protect the route. Some countries, including Bahrain, are pushing for a mandate that could allow the use of force.

But experts warn the challenge is immense. According to security and maritime specialists, Iran’s arsenal — including drones, mines and missiles — combined with its strategic coastline, makes the strait far harder to defend than the Red Sea.

“Convoy protection in Hormuz is significantly more difficult,” said retired U.S. Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, who took part in tanker escort missions during the Iran-Iraq war.

The situation also carries political risks in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump faces pressure to justify involvement in a potential conflict as energy prices climb, with gasoline nearing $4 a gallon. Analysts say prices are unlikely to ease until shipping resumes through the strait.

The impact is already being felt globally, from rising fuel costs to economic strain on transport workers in countries like the Philippines.

Washington’s stance remains unclear. Trump has alternated between suggesting U.S. naval escorts and calling on allies to take the lead. Meanwhile, most commercial traffic has been halted since late February, when joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the latest escalation.

Iran is also weighing new measures, including charging vessels for passage through the strait, according to state media.

The difficulties echo the Red Sea campaign launched in late 2023, when U.S. and European forces sought to secure shipping lanes from Houthi attacks. Despite intercepting hundreds of drones and missiles, four ships were sunk, and global shipping companies rerouted vessels around Africa, abandoning what was once a major trade corridor.

Now, with far higher stakes in the Strait of Hormuz, the question remains whether a similar strategy can succeed, or whether the world is facing a deeper, more costly disruption.