Libya’s institutions, divisions and power structures are incredibly nuanced, but here is a broad view of the situation.
After the Arab Spring uprisings and the subsequent fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya was forced into a power vacuum and instability. It has since been ravaged by turmoil and strife, splintered across political, military and power lines.
The fractures in the north African state allowed space for a militant uprising.
Haftar saw a campaign through against this rise of Islamist militias in and around Benghazi. It took more than three years to complete and left parts of Libya’s second city in ruins.
Affiliates of the self-styled Islamic State group were expelled from Gaddafi’s home town of Sirte in 2016 by local forces supported by U.S. air strikes. Oil production partially recovered as blockaders were sidelined, and migrant smuggling networks were curbed under strong Italian pressure.
But while power remains split between two main factions, these victories cannot truly come to fruition.
Currently, the country has two rival governments:
In the east is the House of Representatives, based in the cities of Tobruk and Al-Bayda. This government is the only one with an electoral mandate and, perhaps more importantly right now, it is backed by the LNA, who are making moves towards Tripoli in a potential power seizure.
In the west is the Government of National Accord, based in the capital, Tripoli. This government, headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj, is recognised by the UN.
These two administrations are not the only ones vying for power and control in this oil-rich country. Several militias, mostly in the south, wield considerable influence; many have tribal alliances.
Also in the south, minority groups such as the Tubu and Arab tribes fight for control of cross-border smuggling routes. The region is riven with human traffickers from Africa.
East v West not just governmental
Over three-quarters of the nation’s oil is produced in the east of the country. Oil is, of course, the main source of revenue in Libya so there is resentment as those in the east believe they receive fewer resources than those in the west despite their area being hugely more profitable.
Haftar’s rise
After decades of exile in the United States, Haftar returned to Libya in 2011 to take part in the uprising against longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi. In the years that followed Gaddafi’s ouster and killing, various armed groups vied for control in of the oil-rich country.
Amidst the chaos, Haftar launched in 2014 “Operation Dignity” to “cleanse” the country of what he called “terrorist” militias.
In July 2017, Haftar said his forces had seized Benghazi after a bloody three-year battle. Last year, the LNA gained control of Derna, the last bastion of opposition against Haftar in the east of the country.
Then in January this year, he launched a new offensive into oil-rich Fezzan in Libya’s south-west. The LNA made deals with the local tribes and overran the region without a major fight.
Haftar’s “ultimate goal when he went into Fezzan was to take Tripoli”, said Jalel Harchaoui, a research fellow at the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute.
“You cannot rule Libya unless you control Tripoli. Because all the money, diplomatic missions and most of the population is there – everything is concentrated there.”
What has the UN done recently?
Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Ghassan Salamé, and the United Nations Support Mission for Libya (UNSMIL) have most recently stepped up efforts to ensure credible and peaceful elections.
Salamé announced a fortnight ago that the National Conference will take place from 14 to 16 April 2019 in Ghadames, Libya.
However, Haftar’s latest move may throw that into doubt.
What’s the status on the ground?
“Even the residents of Tripoli are sick and tired of the status quo. It’s not because of a love for Haftar. It’s a desire for peace, quiet and normalcy. As things stand today, it’s a mess. The militias are kleptomaniacs. They loot the country’s wealth while people are going hungry.”
Describing the armed groups allied to Tripoli as “kids with guns”, El-Kikhia said they were no match for Haftar’s estimated 25,000 forces, who “are well trained and hardened after four years of fighting against ‘terrorists’.”
But other analysts disagreed.
When asked if Haftar was likely to succeed, Saleh El Bakkoush, a Tripoli-based political analyst, replied: “Absolutely not.”
Noting that forces supporting the Tripoli-based government captured on Friday more than 140 LNA-backed troops at a checkpoint some 30km west of the capital, El Bakkoush said: “There’s great excitement among the GNA-allied troops … The tide is turning.”
via Euronews / Al Jazeera
