Analysis on Macedonia’s EU and NATO future and Russian influence after Macedonia’s vote

Snap elections are likely to decide Macedonia’s EU future after most people failed to vote in a referendum on changing the country’s name.

 ust 36.5 percent of eligible voters turned out on Sunday (30 September) to answer the question: “Are you for EU and Nato membership by accepting the agreement between the Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Greece?”.

That fell short of the threshold of ’50 percent plus one voter’ that would have made it valid, even though 91 percent of those who did vote did back the deal.

The EU Observer reports that the fiasco sets the scene for the country’s pro-EU leader, prime minister Zoran Zaev, to try to ratify the name deal via a vote in parliament.

The referendum was non-binding, but its failure will make it harder for him to secure the two-thirds majority he would need to get it through. The flop will also give ammunition to nationalists in Macedonia and Greece to say the name accord has no popular mandate.

“The people made a great choice and said ‘yes’ to our future. It is time for lawmakers to follow the voice of the people and to provide support,” Zaev told press on Sunday. “I am determined to take Macedonia into the European Union and Nato,” he added. “There will be no better agreement with Greece, nor an alternative for Nato and the EU,” he said.

In the meantime, the Guardian comments that the refusal of Macedonia’s voters to endorse a change in their country’s name seems, at first glance, to be a matter of purely local interest. But the result of Sunday’s referendum will be widely seen as a significant victory for Vladimir Putin, a setback for the EU and Nato, and another disturbing example of Russia’s ability and willingness to influence the democratic process in western countries.

Western officials warned before the vote that Moscow was trying to depress turnout in the referendum in order to invalidate the outcome. In the event, more than 90% of those voting backed the name change.