British Prime Minister will embark on her arduous task to convince the British MPs and their electorate about the importance of agreeing to the Brexit Deal. After getting the green light to the agreement yesterday from her European counterparts, the most challenging part starts.
The Prime Minister intends to hold the crucial Parliamentary vote on the deal on December 12, and will on Monday update Cabinet on plans for a two-week media blitz timed to exert maximum pressure on MPs to fall into line.
She will chair a meeting of her cabinet and face the Commons on Monday after EU leaders endorsed the deal and made it clear it was not up for renegotiation.
The Telegraph reports that Theresa May will challenge Jeremy Corbyn to a TV debate on her Brexit deal as the showpiece of an election-style campaign to seek the country’s backing.
The Guardian reports Theresa May will take the high-stakes battle to save her Brexit plan and her premiership to all four nations of the United Kingdom this week after warning MPs on Monday that failing to back the deal will take Britain “back to square one”.
Here are the What if Scenarios: (NYT)
The British Parliament rejects the deal? The Labour Party, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and some hard-line Brexit supporters in Mrs. May’s Conservative Party have vowed to vote against the deal. A rejection could put Mrs. May’s leadership, and perhaps her government, in peril.
If Parliament votes no, a 21-day deadline kicks in. Mrs. May will have 21 days to make a statement on how the government is to proceed.
Mrs. May could try to renegotiate. European Union leaders made it clear on Sunday that she was unlikely to win any significant concessions in a second round, so this tactic is unlikely to break the deadlock.
The prime minister could resign. Nothing in her record suggests she would quit easily, especially if no one has a better plan.
She could face a leadership challenge. Political chaos could make Mrs. May’s position seem untenable. But rebels have so far failed to secure the 48 Conservative votes needed to call a no-confidence vote, let alone the 159 votes to oust Mrs. May.
Lawmakers could try to assemble a cross-parties majority for a “softer” Brexit. Some would like Britain to stay in Europe’s single market, at least temporarily. It would mean accepting the free movement of people, which Brexit campaigners fought hard to end.
A second referendum could occur. Britons could be given the chance to change their minds and stay in the European Union — but such a vote would have to be passed through Parliament and could take months to set up.
“No deal” Brexit could become a reality. If Parliament is gridlocked, leaving the European Union without a deal is the default option. But with Brexit day looming, the fear of what would happen to supply chains, trade and transportation could change perceptions.
If you’re interested to read what happened during yesterday’s summit click here.
Here is our post-summit recommended reading list.
Who are the the main hurdles she need to overcome and convince? (ITV)
Eurosceptics – Led by figures including Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, a number of Brexiteer Tories have rejected Mrs May’s deal and called for it to be renegotiated. This raises the prospect of some of Mrs May’s own MPs voting against the agreement when it goes before the Commons. Writing in the Daily Telegraph on Monday, Mr Johnson branded the PM’s deal a “disaster” and a “humiliation” for the UK and called for it to be voted down. In the Sunday Express, Mr Rees-Mogg, who is calling for Mrs May to be replaced, said the deal was a “failure”
DUP – The Eurosceptics’ rejection of the plans stems in large part from the deal’s backstop provision for the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Hardline Brexiteers say it risks the UK being unable to ever fully leave the EU. The DUP say the backstop would see Northern Ireland adopt a different regulatory regime to Great Britain if a wider UK/EU trade deal fails to materialise. On Sunday, DUP leader Arlene Foster said there were no circumstances under which her party would vote for the current deal.
Labour repeatedly warned that they would vote against any deal that does not pass six tests. Among the requirements are that it delivers the “exact same” benefits, fair management of migration and the protection of workers’ rights and protections. Jeremy Corbyn has said the deal does not meet the tests and “is the result of a miserable failure of negotiation that leaves us with the worst of all worlds”.
Is there a second chance?
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker led the warnings on Sunday that there could be no return to the negotiating table if the deal is rejected. Nevertheless, a no-deal Brexit would have damaging consequences for both the UK and EU countries. If talks were re-opened it would likely mean extending the Article 50 period well beyond March 29. According to reports, officials in Westminster and Brussels were continuing to work on plans for alternative arrangements.
