Central Asia’s population boom contrasts Europe’s demographic decline, report shows
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Central Asia’s population is projected to exceed 114 million by 2050, according to the United Nations Population Fund, setting the region apart from much of Europe and East Asia, where populations are aging and shrinking.
The UNFPA says Central Asia is entering a rare demographic phase marked by rapid growth in its working-age population. Adults aged 15 to 64 are expected to increase from about 50 million today to roughly 71 million by mid-century, adding more than 20 million people to the labor force over the next 25 years.
Nearly one-third of the region’s population is under 15, a trend that will place sustained pressure on education systems, labor markets and public services.
“This demographic momentum creates a limited but critical opportunity,” said Nigina Abbaszade, UNFPA’s representative in Uzbekistan. “Whether this growth translates into economic and social gains depends on how well countries prepare now.”
Abbaszade said investment in education, health care and decent employment — particularly for women and young people — will be essential if population growth is to support long-term development.
Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most populous country, illustrates the scale of the trend. Its population stood at 37.4 million in 2024, nearly half of the region’s total, and is projected to reach about 52 million by 2050.
The country’s population is growing at around 2% a year, almost twice the global average. Official statistics show the population increases by roughly 740,000 people annually, with birth rates highest in the southern Surkhandarya region. About 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is under 30, adding momentum to labor market expansion and economic growth.
In the first 24 hours of 2026 alone, 1,815 children were born in the country, according to national data.
Kazakhstan presents a more mixed picture. Its population reached about 20.3 million in 2025, up 23% from 1992, and is projected to grow to around 26 million by 2050. About 29% to 30% of its population is under 15, sustaining growth even as the country moves through a demographic transition.
Fertility remains relatively high, at around three children per woman. At the same time, the share of people aged 65 and older is expected to nearly double by 2050, rising from 8% to almost 15%. Population growth is strongest in the south and west, while northern regions face decline and slower economic activity.
Across Central Asia, family size continues to be shaped by cultural norms, though economic realities play a growing role. Women interviewed by UNFPA described balancing tradition with concerns about health, education and financial security, and stressed the importance of planning and shared responsibility.
The region’s trajectory contrasts sharply with Europe. The European Union’s fertility rate is well below the replacement level, while life expectancy continues to rise, reshaping labor markets and social systems. UNFPA officials say lower birth rates in Europe often reflect economic constraints — including housing costs, childcare expenses and work-life balance — rather than a simple change in values.
By mid-century, Central Asia’s growth is expected to increase pressure on water resources, land and urban infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable areas such as the Aral Sea region and the Fergana Valley. Without sufficient job creation and social protection, risks include unemployment, migration pressures and environmental strain.
UNFPA says that with sustained investment in human capital and labor markets, Central Asia could integrate its expanding youth population at a time when many European countries are facing labor shortages.
