Euro zone September inflation revised down slightly, still at record high
BRUSSELS, Oct 19 (Reuters) – Euro zone consumer inflation was marginally lower in September than estimated earlier, data showed on Wednesday, but still at a record high, underlining market expectations of more interest rate rises before the end of the year.
The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said consumer prices in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.2% month-on-month for a 9.9% year-on-year surge, revising down its earlier estimate of a 10% year-on-year reading.
Surging energy prices were responsible for 4.19 percentage points of the total year-on-year reading, with food adding another 2.47 points and services 1.80 points.
Without the volatile unprocessed food and energy costs, or what the European Central Bank calls core inflation, prices went up 0.9% on the month for a 6.0% year-on-year gain.
An even narrower measure that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, and watched closely by markets showed prices rose 1.0% month-on-month for a 4.8% year-on-year increase.
The ECB wants to keep inflation at 2% and it has been raising interest rates to curb price growth.
A host of policymakers have already made the case for another 75 basis point rate hike on Oct. 27 after a combined 125 basis points of moves in two meetings, the ECB’s fastest pace of policy tightening on record.
Markets now see the 0.75% deposit rate rising to around 2% by the end of the year, then to around 3% next spring before levelling off.
The table includes the core rate of inflation referred to by the European Central Bank, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food costs.
Euro area inflation rates in % for main components, measured by HICPs
| Weight (‰) | Annual rate | Monthly rate | |||||||
| 2022 | Sep 21 | Apr 22 | May 22 | Jun 22 | Jul 22 | Aug 22 | Sep 22 | Sep 22 | |
| All-items HICP | 1000.0 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 1.2 |
| > excluding energy | 890.7 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 0.9 |
| > excluding energy, unprocessed food | 841.2 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.9 |
| > excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco | 681.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
| > excluding energy, seasonal food | 862.7 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 0.9 |
| > excluding tobacco | 975.8 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 1.2 |
| Food, alcohol & tobacco | 208.9 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 0.9 |
| > excluding processed food, alcohol & tobacco | 159.4 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 0.7 |
| > excluding unprocessed food | 49.5 | 2.6 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 1.6 |
| Energy | 109.3 | 17.6 | 37.5 | 39.1 | 42.0 | 39.6 | 38.6 | 40.7 | 2.9 |
| Non-energy industrial goods | 265.2 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| Services | 416.7 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.3 | -0.1 |
