Europe Votes: Hungary, the projections

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This is a summary of Politico’s projections of the voting today in Hungary:


Hungary – The Projections

If turnout of 28.97% is maintained in this vote, Politico predicts Fidesz&KDNP will beat second-placed DK by 1,029,698 votes. That is just 18% of the 5,721, 893 expected non-voters.

Fidesz is expected to win 12 seats.

Hungary – The Issues

Far-right prime minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party have focused their campaign on migration. He began the campaign season saying that he hoped “anti-migration politicians” take over “every single institution” of the EU and hosted Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini and Austrian vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache in Budapest. Fidesz is part of a right-wing faction within the European People’s party (EPP), a traditionally centre-right bloc that Mr Orban’s party was suspended from in late March.

The suspension, which came after the Hungarian government erected billboards portraying EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker alongside Mr Orban’s favourite bugbear, billionaire philanthropist George Soros, will see Fidesz lose its ability to attend EPP meetings, vote, and propose candidates for posts. Fidesz looks set to win more than half of the votes, but the elections will be a test for which opposition party emerges strongest ahead of the October local elections.

The FT reports that with a five per cent threshold for entering the European parliament, turnout favours Fidesz.

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