The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recommends that testing efforts are maximised with the aim of offering timely testing to all symptomatic cases, including mild cases.
Some of the obstacles that hindered this approach earlier in the year, such as shortages of testing assays, kits and laboratory supplies, and shortages in personal protective equipment, have for the most part been overcome.
Testing of all symptomatic cases together with timely and effective contact tracing are currently the main pillars of the COVID-19 public health response. In addition, surveillance systems need to be reinforced to monitor the spread of infection and rapidly detect increasing incidence.
Poland and Sweden are the only EU countries to have not yet passed their COVID-19 peak, the (ECDC) flagged.”The initial wave of transmission has passed its peak in all countries apart from Poland and Sweden,” the ECDC wrote in its latest rapid risk assessment.
The EU health agency said that lockdown measures across the EU/EEA — which also includes Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway — and the UK have led to an 80% decline in the virus’s 14-day incidence since the peak on April 9. But in Poland and Sweden, the 14-day incidence “was at the highest level yet observed”.
Decreasing trends in disease incidence are observed and sustained in almost all Member States, but several are still reporting ongoing community transmission:
- As of 10 June, 29 EU/EEA countries and the UK had a decreasing 14-day incidence, while the 14-day incidence was at the highest level yet observed in two countries (Poland and Sweden).
- Twenty-eight countries are reporting a current 14-day incidence below 20 cases per 100 000 population. In two countries (Portugal and the United Kingdom) the current 14-day incidence remains at a rate between 20 and 100 cases per 100 000 population. In one country (Sweden) the current 14-day incidence is above 100 cases per 100 000 population.
- There remains uncertainty as to the extent of viral circulation as there is limited information available on the proportion of community transmission that occurs outside of known transmission chains and/or due to importation across countries.
The ECDC report said that the implementation of robust response measures in the EU was temporarily associated with an observed decrease in incidence. Although the composition and intensity of implementation varied, all EU/EEA countries and the UK introduced a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (recommended or enforced – refer to Annex 4). While uncertainty remains about the extent to which the combination and intensity of these measures had an impact on transmission, such measures appear to have been associated, at least temporarily, with decreases in the number of newly reported cases.
In summary, the probability of infection with SARS-CoV-2 for the general population ranges from low (in areas where community transmission has been reduced and/or maintained at low levels and where there is extensive testing, showing very low detection rates) to very high (in areas where appropriate physical distancing measures are not in place and where community transmission is still high).
While the majority of cases of COVID-19 have a mild course of illness, the analysis of data from TESSy shows that the risk of hospitalisation increases rapidly with age, from as early as 30 years, and that the risk of death increases from the age of 50 years, although the majority of hospitalisations and deaths are among the oldest age groups. Older males are particularly affected, being more likely than females of the same age to be hospitalised, require ICU/respiratory support, or die. All-cause excess mortality from EuroMOMO, particularly at this time when competing drivers (influenza and high/low temperatures) are largely absent, shows considerable excess mortality in multiple countries, affecting both the 15−64 and 65+ years age groups in the pooled analysis. Once infected, no specific treatment for COVID-19 exists, however early supportive therapy may improve outcomes. There are ongoing trials that have demonstrated some evidence for limited reduction of symptom duration. There is evidence that since the start of the pandemic, case management, supportive treatment and care has improved.
ECDC / Euronews
