European Parliament Election Results 2023: Implications for National Governments & EU Direction

Government’s across Europe suffered a significant dent in their support during the weekend’s electoral test. From Malta to France, same with Belgium, Germany and Hungary the results have indicated a level of reduction in the support to the national governments, even though the people were exercising their right to vote for the representatives in the European Parliament.

However for many governments this was a mid-term test which might have implications on both national governments and potentially on the direction Europe will be going on its programmes and reforms.

Around 360 million EU citizens to cast their votes in the election of 720 members of the European Parliament.

At a European level, the European Parliament witnesses the Green and liberal Renew parties each shedding approximately 20 MEPs, while the EPP manages to maintain its support, defying expectations of a major rightward swing.

In Malta, the home country of EP President Roberta Metsola the ruling Labour Party (S&D) suffered a significant loss in its support where after a number of elections where it had garnered significant votes had its support slashed by over 25,000 votes. It also lost a seat in the European Parliament to the Nationalist Party (EPP).

In Germany, the conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union has secured the top position in the country’s Sunday election, as per early estimates. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is expected to come in second, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). POLITICO reports that Germany’s ruling coalition suffered a crushing blow in the European Parliament election tonight, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats recording their worst result in a national vote in more than a century. The left-leaning coalition’s steep losses will likely renew questions over the government’s stability.

The far-right National Rally (RN) party, headed by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has achieved an impressive 31.5% of the votes in France, as per an exit poll. This marks the first occasion since 1984 that a French party has secured over 30% in European elections. This figure is twice the number of votes garnered by President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renew party (15.2%), which narrowly surpassed the Socialist Party for the second position, averting a potential double setback. The Socialists, guided by Raphael Glucksmann in these elections, had gained momentum over the past month with a bold pro-EU stance.

In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party, part of the Identity and Democracy group (ID), is estimated to secure six seats, marking a significant increase in its representation. If these estimates are validated, the Freedom Party will have effectively doubled its number of seats, overtaking both the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), each predicted to obtain 5 MEPs.

In Greece, initial exit polls reveal the ruling conservative New Democracy party leading by a significant margin, albeit with a noticeable weakening compared to previous support. New Democracy is expected to receive between 28 percent and 32 percent, representing a decline from the 40.5 percent it secured last June in national elections. Furthermore, this falls short of the party’s target, which aimed to match its support in the last European election (33.1 percent).

The liberal party of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo OpenVLD lost dramatically in Belgium‘s regional, national and EU elections on Sunday. The right-wing New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) emerged as the biggest winner of elections in Belgium on Sunday, with the extreme-right pro-separatist Vlaams Belang in second place. The country voted in regional, national and European elections, dubbed “super Sunday”. At the national level, the nationalist N-VA led by Bart De Wever received 18.6% of votes, up by more than 2% compared to 2020, while Vlaams Belang, at 15.4%, saw a 3.5% jump, according to the preliminary results published by broadcaster VRT.

Partial estimates on the outcome of Hungary‘s European elections indicate that Viktor Orbán’s right-wing Fidesz will send the country’s biggest delegation to Brussels despite scoring a historic low with 44% of the vote. The result is a drop from 2019, where Fidesz gained 51.48% of the vote, and will see them send 13 MEPs together with their allies in the European People’s Party, the Christian Democrats. They would be Fidesz’s worst result in a national or EU election in almost two decades.

In Czech Republic, the majority of the 21 seats will be occupied by centrist and right-wing forces. The governing centre-right party of Petr Fiala, together with another EPP party, secured five seats but arrived second after Renew’s ANO 2011. This centrist populist party has been continuously increasing its number of MEPs since its first participation in 2014. Notably, no seats were acquired by S&D.

In Estonia, the 7 seats were distributed as follows: PPE secured 2 seats with 21.6% of the vote, S&D also obtained 2 seats with 19.3% of the vote, and the Renew parties (ER and KE) together claimed 2 seats, with ER leading at 17.9% and KE at 12.4%. Additionally, 1 seat was won by the right-wing ID party. Notably, this outcome signifies a setback for the two centrist parties, which had obtained 24% and 22% of the vote respectively in 2019.

Slovakia’s 15 seats are shared between the Progressive Slovakia (Renew, 27,80% – 6 seats) and the now non-attached parties of Republika and the ruling left-wing nationalist SMER party (12,5% and 24,8% each). Only one candidates from the EPP secured a seat.

In Slovenia, EPP parties (Slovenian democratic party and the New Slovenia – Christian Democrats) arrived first with 5 seats out of 9. The 4 other seats are being filled with two MEPs for Renew, one for the Greens and one for the S&D.

In Finland the governing coalition, led by the EPP National Coalition Party of Prime Minister Petteri Otto, secured 4 out of 15 seats (24.8%). The Left and Centrist Renew parties came second and third with 17.3% and 18% respectively. S&D and Greens followed closely with 14.9% and 11% each. The far-right Finns Party, affiliated with ECR, which was expected to come third, ended up in last place with 7.60%.

In Latvia, the recent elections were characterised by the strong performance of right-wing parties. The EPP secured a narrow victory, receiving 25.07% of the vote and clinching 2 seats, closely followed by the ECR with 22.08% of the vote and also securing 2 seats. Additionally, two right-wing parties, the green conservative United List and the nationalist populist party Latvia First, garnered significant support, receiving 8.18% and 6.16% of the votes respectively. Notably, the Renew, Greens, and S&D parties also made their mark, each receiving 9.36%, 7.42%, and 7.14% of the votes, demonstrating the diverse political landscape in Latvia.

Exceptions to the rule

Few exceptions to the rule were registered. Mainly these came from Italy, Spain, Luxembourg and Poland.

Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy (FdI) have decisively won the elections in Italy, securing a solid 26% to 30% of the votes based on an exit poll released by RAI. This resounding victory further solidifies Meloni’s position as the pivotal figure of the hard right and one of the most influential figures in Europe. The centre-left opposition of the Partitito Democratico (PD) has garnered 21% to 25% of the votes, while the Five Star Movement trails in a distant third with 10% to 14% of the votes. In contrast, Meloni’s junior partners, Forza Italia and Lega, are polling significantly lower, dipping into single-digit territory.

The Partido Popular (PP) conservatives have secured a narrow victory in the elections in Spain according to an exit poll by RTVE and Forta. With 32.4% of the votes, the PP is projected to gain between 21 and 23 MEPs, a significant increase from the current 13. Meanwhile, the socialists led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have maintained their position with 30.2% of the votes and are expected to secure 20 to 22 MEPs, in line with their current 21. The far-right party Vox is set to enhance its representation from 4 to between 6 and 7 MEPs. The leftist alliance of Sumar, Sánchez’s coalition partner, is likely to secure 3 to 4 seats, while the left-wing party Podemos is expected to gain between 2 and 3 legislators. However, the most surprising development is the emergence of Se Acabó La Fiesta (“The Party Is Over”), a party established this year by social media personality Alvise Pérez, which identifies itself as anti-establishment. Analysts have linked it with far-right populism. According to the same poll, Se Acabó La Fiesta is projected to enter the European Parliament with 2 to 3 MEPs.

Early projections of the European election results in Poland show that Tusk’s Civic Coalition is set to keep its lead over its rival Law and Justice or PiS party, mimicking national election results in December. An Ipsos exit poll published by Polish television channel TVN24 showed that with 38% of the vote, Tusk’s political alliance should be able to delegate around 21 MEPs to the new European Parliament. The right-wing populist PiS came in second place with a predicted result of 33.9%.

In Luxembourg, the dominant Christian Social People’s Party (EPP) successfully obtained the majority of seats, securing two out of six. The Luxembourg Socialist Workers’ Party (S&D) followed closely in second place with 21.72% of the votes, earning one seat. The Democratic Party (Renew) and the Greens both performed well, securing 18.29% and 11.76% of the votes, respectively. The Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ECR) also attained 11.76% of the votes.

In Lithuania, the EPP governing party, Homeland Union, secured 21.33% of the vote (3 seats). Close behind is the S&D (18.01% – 2 seats), followed by 2 Renew parties (8.07% and 5.41% – one seat each), 2 Greens parties (9.13% and 5.96% – one seat each), and one ECR (5.77%).

In Romania, the National Coalition for Romania, comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), has secured a substantial 54% of the votes. The EPP will be represented by 9 seats, while the S&D will have 13. This represents a significant triumph for the governing party, especially considering that the second most supported party, the extremist nationalist Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (AUR), is estimated at 14%, which is 30 points behind. This newcomer to the European Parliament is expected to hold 5 seats.

In Portugal the Socialist Party (PS) and the conservative Aliança Democrática (AD) are in a tight race, according to the initial estimates. The PS secures 31.40% and seven MEPs, while the AD earns 30.60% and seven MEPs, representing nearly identical numbers. However, in comparison to 2019, the PS loses two seats, while the conservatives maintain their levels. The poll also indicates that the liberals of Iniciativa Liberal (IL) now have two MEPs, a significant increase from zero in 2019, and The Left has decreased from two to four. Meanwhile, the far-right party Chega, which the other parties have surrounded with a cordon sanitaire, is set to enter the European Parliament for the first time with two lawmakers.

Left against the trend

The Social Democrats have emerged victorious in the Swedish elections, securing 23.10% of the votes and maintaining their five MEPs, according to an exit poll released by the public broadcaster SVT. On the other hand, the centre-right Moderaterna, led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, secured a somewhat distant second place, with 17.30% of the votes and 4 MEPs. The Greens have managed to retain their three MEPs amidst the election results.

Meanwhile the formation of the next European Parliament will see the following structure: