Islamic State eying comeback in Syria and Iraq

Islamic State militants are attempting a resurgence in Syria and Iraq following the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, according to Western and regional officials. The group is reactivating sleeper cells, redistributing weapons, and stepping up recruitment, though its capabilities remain limited for now.

Security sources from over 20 entities, including the U.S., Syria, Iraq and Europe, agree that IS is exploiting post-Assad instability to reestablish networks. Syrian and Iraqi forces say they have disrupted multiple plots this year, including a foiled suicide bombing in Daquq in December, traced through captured IS envoys.

In the first five months of 2025, IS claimed 38 attacks in Syria and four in Iraq, significantly fewer than in 2024, according to SITE Intelligence Group. Analysts caution this drop may reflect a tactical pause, not a diminished threat.

U.S. officials say IS is unable to hold territory but remains dangerous. “They’re testing the waters,” said Col. Abdul Ameer al-Bayati of Iraq’s 8th Division.

IS activity comes as Syria’s new Islamist-led government, under Ahmed al-Sharaa, struggles to consolidate power. Washington has asked Sharaa to prevent IS’s return, even as it prepares to reduce troop levels in Syria. Baghdad, meanwhile, has requested a delay in the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.

There are also fears IS could exploit poorly guarded prisons and camps housing some 9,000 detainees, mostly held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Two jailbreak attempts have been reported since Assad’s fall.

“The group is resilient and patient,” said Rita Katz, director of SITE. “It thrives on chaos.”

U.S. and Iraqi officials continue to monitor IS activity and conduct joint counterterrorism operations. For now, officials say the group remains fragmented—but far from gone.

Read more via Reuters