Only one in 10 to be protected from COVID-19 in first year of vaccine use
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Sky News on Sunday reported that just one in 10 of the world’s population is likely to be protected against COVID-19 in the first year of a vaccine being made available.
Analysis of global manufacturing capacity shows just two billion doses could be made in 2021, even if a vaccine was given the green light by safety regulators at the start of the year.
But with seven of the nine prototype vaccines in late-stage clinical trials requiring two doses, that’s likely to be enough to immunise only a little over 12% of the 7.8 billion people who need it.
Dr Cleo Kontoravdi, associate professor of chemical engineering at Imperial College London, told Sky News: “We have to be clear that in the first instance not everybody will have access to the vaccine. We do not have the manufacturing capacity.”
Calculations by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations show that even if manufacturing capacity doubled, as planned, over the next 12 months less than half the world’s population could be protected by the end of 2022.
It could mean some travel restrictions and social distancing will be needed for years to come, unless there is a game-changing advance in vaccine technology that speeds up production.
