By Nora Buli
OSLO (Reuters) – Swedish onshore wind production is projected to overtake hydropower as the country’s largest source of electricity by the end of this decade, underpinning the country’s position as a key European power exporter, consultancy Rystad Energy said.
“We have onshore wind slightly overtaking hydro as the largest source of electricity by 2030, reaching 70.1 terawatt hours (TWh) overall,” Rystad renewables analyst Francesca Bjoernflaten told Reuters.
Total power generation in the country should hit 208 TWh in 2030, she said. This corresponds to an increase of around 30% from today, according to a Reuters calculation.
Sweden was the largest electricity exporter in Europe for the first three quarters of 2022, selling over 20% of its total generation to neighbouring countries, a Rystad report on green power covering Sweden, Denmark and Finland showed.
Bjoernflaten said Rystad expects traditional export leader France to overtake Sweden again in the next two years, with French exports to return to around 50-60 TWh annually amid a recovery in nuclear production.
“However, post-2025 we see Sweden emerging as a candidate to take over from France as the permanently largest power exporter in Europe, as total power generation will grow much faster in Sweden than in France, with an ageing nuclear fleet,” she added.
Finland and Denmark are also on track for substantial renewable energy growth, with electricity output in all three countries expected to exceed domestic needs, offering large exports of green power to Europe at low prices, Rystad said.
Combined onshore wind and utility-scale solar power capacity in Denmark, Sweden and Finland will more than double from 32 GW this year to 74 GW by 2030, the report showed.
Onshore wind will account for 61.5 GW of the installed capacity, while solar will provide 12.8 GW, with most of the latter situated in Denmark, Rystad forecast.
(Reporting by Nora Buli, editing by Terje Solsvik)
