Polish foreign minister advises against assuming that Trump will support Russia

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s stance on Ukraine is “not as black and white as some people” think, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski insisted in an interview.

Internationally, suspicions run high that Trump is in thrall to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he has called “genius” and “savvy” for his invasion of Ukraine. Trump has only compounded that view by inflicting long delays on congressional approval for aid to Kyiv.

Sikorski, however, argued the picture was more nuanced, just as Poland is launching a broader diplomatic push to try to win Trump round on the dangers of its arch-enemy Putin.

“Donald Trump was right in urging us all in Europe to spend more on defense,” he said in an interview with Axel Springer, POLITICO’s parent company, adding that Trump also sent Ukraine anti-tank missiles “before the war when others were not doing it.”

For Poland, Russia’s advances in Ukraine mean any weakening of U.S. commitment to NATO poses an existential threat, and Warsaw is keen to lobby and charm Trump before a potential return to the White House. Trump threatens not to defend European countries that don’t spend enough on defense.

After meeting President Andrzej Duda in New York earlier this month, Trump noted both Ukraine’s “survival and strength” was important for the U.S. and that he was “behind Poland all the way.”

Sikorski also observed that Trump’s ultimate lack of protest over the $60 billion package for Ukraine suggested the former president’s attitude toward Ukraine was changing.

“I didn’t hear any protest,” he said. “So I hope that candidate Trump has seen that this opposition to helping Ukraine is not actually popular in the United States, that it’s harming his chances” to be re-elected.

Sikorski had no doubt that Russia’s threat to Poland was — once again — very real.

“Russia has attacked Poland many times in the 500 years of our history,” Sikorski said, adding he “wouldn’t be surprised at all” if it happened again.

Although Sikorski is confident Russia would lose a war with NATO as he considers the West “far more powerful than Russia,” he warned that “we shouldn’t assume that things will go our way.”

Indeed, he noted Russia’s military would only be empowered toward further conquest by taking Ukraine.

“We have a choice: Either having a defeated Russian army outside the borders of Ukraine or a victorious Russian army on the border of Poland. And what Putin would then do is what Hitler did to Czechoslovakia, he would take the industry and the people of Ukraine and mobilize them to go further,” Sikorski said.

“You know, half the German tanks that invaded Poland in 1939 were actually Czech. So if Putin conquers Ukraine, he will be more powerful. And the challenge for us would be bigger … It’s better to to stop Putin in Ukraine, 500-700km east of here,” he continued.

Sikorski also criticized Europe’s “de-industrialization in the defense field,” demanding it “be undone.”

Sikorski was wary about wading to too deep into German political debates, but said he hoped Chancellor Olaf Scholz would take his lead from the U.S. — which has now sent long range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. It was a hint that Germany should send Taurus missiles to Kyiv as a response to Russia’s attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

“I hope the chancellor is encouraged by the events of the last few days. Well, the United States has supplied long-range missiles to Ukraine: the famous ATACMS with a range of 300km. And I hope your chancellor appreciates that it’s a response to the Russian escalation, which is drastic,” he said.

“There was a conference in Berlin about rebuilding Ukraine after the war. Well, how about preventing it from being destroyed? So, I think that would be better.”