Tariffs, AI boom could test global growth’s resilience, OECD says
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Global growth is proving more resilient than expected, with a surge in artificial intelligence investment helping to cushion the impact of recent U.S. tariff increases, the OECD said on Tuesday. The organisation upgraded its outlook for several major economies but cautioned that any renewed trade tensions could threaten this momentum. It also warned that market enthusiasm for AI could prompt a correction if expectations turn out to be unrealistic.
In its latest Economic Outlook, the OECD maintained its previous forecasts, projecting global growth to ease from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before recovering slightly to 3.1% in 2027.
The U.S. outlook has improved, with growth now expected to reach 2% in 2025 — up from September’s estimate of 1.8%,before slowing to 1.7% in 2026. Strong AI investment, fiscal measures and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are helping counterbalance the effects of higher tariffs, lower immigration and cuts to federal employment.
China’s economy is forecast to grow by 5% in 2025, up from the previous 4.9% projection, before easing to 4.4% in 2026 as fiscal support tapers off and new U.S. tariffs begin to weigh.
