University of Washington forecasts 135,000 coronavirus deaths in US by August
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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) delivered a worrying assessment on the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic in the country, forecasting that nearly 135,000 US citizens will die by early August. Through the revised mortality model, which takes in consideration the social distancing measures which had been taken and their early relaxation, the Institute is predicting that the number of deaths will be almost double previous projections.
The IHME note that this revised forecast takes a better reflection at the “rising mobility in most U.S. states” after lockdown orders will be eased by Monday, while a number of establishments will be allowed to re-open.
“We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer,” the IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, said in a statement.
Based on the Institute’s updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics.
New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Michigan are projected to have the highest cumulative COVID-19 death toll through August. While these states have generally been among those with the highest predicted tolls from COVID-19, each of their cumulative death projections have increased by at least 2,000. This is due in part to updates to death data and modeling approaches, with the latter now estimating longer epidemic peaks and slower downward trajectories following those peaks in many locations.
Its modelling approach also indicates that the US appears to be in a prolonged epidemic peak, averaging near or over 2,000 predicted COVID-19 deaths a day for the last few weeks.
These forecasts will continue to put pressure President Donald Trump who has been widely criticised in recent days by public health experts that if restrictions on commerce and social activities are removed too quickly – in hopes of boosting the economy – this could have a significant impact on the lives of American citizens.Americans a day by the end of May, up from a current daily toll that a Reuters tally places at around 2,000.
Around 1.2 million cases have already been identified around the country.
