Venezuela – Who is more legitimate, Mr. Maduro or Mr. Guaidó?
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Venezuela’s crisis has raised questions that could determine the country’s future — and that a far-off news reader could be forgiven for finding confusing.
Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader, has declared that President Nicolás Maduro is illegitimate and has asserted himself as Venezuela’s interim president.
So who is the legitimate leader, how can we tell and who gets to decide?
The United States and several countries in Latin America and Europe have recognized Mr. Guaidó as the rightful leader, and he has called on the military to withdraw its support for Mr. Maduro.
But would elevating Mr. Guaidó constitute a democratic transition or a coup?
The answers to these questions, though urgently important, are not at all straightforward.
The New York Times provides the following explainer:
There is no one litmus test for political legitimacy, which can come from a few different sources. Both Mr. Maduro and Mr. Guaidó have debatable claims to legitimacy, which is part of what makes this so messy.
Calling a leader “legitimate” does not mean that he or she is popular, successful or morally upstanding. It simply means that citizens, political elites and foreign governments recognize the leader’s rightful authority.
So when a leader takes power and is initially treated as legitimate — and Mr. Maduro was generally accepted when he took office in 2013 — it’s very difficult for him or her to lose it.
But Mr. Maduro has seen his sources of legitimacy weaken.
Protesters filled the streets of Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, last week to denounce him as illegitimate. Still, even 300,000 protesters would constitute only about 1 percent of the population. Mr. Maduro is thought to retain some support, particularly among the poor.
Many of Venezuela’s neighbors have dropped their recognition of Mr. Maduro, as have the United States and Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Spain, among other nations. If Mr. Maduro cannot represent himself as legitimate abroad, then he will look less legitimate at home, which invites citizens and political officials to reject him as well.
