Goldman Sachs said a potential drop in oil demand from top energy consumer China due to the outbreak of a new coronavirus could hurt crude prices by about $3 per barrel, countering concerns about Middle East supply disruptions.
The outbreak began in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei and has spread to the rest of the country, with 440 confirmed cases and nine deaths so far. It has also spread to the United States, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
“Translating the estimated SARS demand impact into 2020 volumes points to a potential 260,000 barrels per day negative shock to global oil demand on average,” Goldman said in a note dated Jan. 21. The estimate includes a 170,000 barrels per day loss of jet fuel demand, it added.
See also: Chinese virus outbreak prompts extra checks at airports, fever scanners to be set up at Rome’s Fiumicino Airport
The bank expects jet fuel markets, including cracks, regrade and Asian differentials, to be hit the most if the outbreak leads to a decline in regional air travel.
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