Warning UK is ‘2 to 3 weeks’ behind Italy’s coronavirus outbreak
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“Every country is at a different phase. If you compare the situation in Italy with the UK, we would suggest the UK is 2 to 3 weeks behind where Italy are in terms of the growth of the cases.”
Dr Michael Tildesley is an expert in infectious disease control and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick in the UK.
Tildesley thinks we are potentially moving from containment to delay mode in the UK:
“That is why these kind of measures are being put into place at this point. What they are trying to do is both delay and reduce the height of the peak.
”It potentially reduces the pressures on health services. The challenge with this is that it might need to be sustained for a significant period of time (to be effective).”
The appropriate timing for the introduction of such measures, according to Dr Tildesley, is what will determine how effective they are. If they are introduced too soon authorities might not be able to sustain it for too long, if they are introduced too late they might not be effective at all.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to escalate the UK’s coronavirus response to the next phase – meaning schools could be forced to close, major sporting events cancelled and people made to work from home.
The prime minister will chair an emergency COBRA meeting on Thursday where he is expected to declare that the UK will switch from trying to contain COVID-19 to delaying its spread.
