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Why the volatile South Caucasus is important for oil and gas supplies

epa10883971 Ethnic Armenian flee Karabakh for Armenia at the Lachin checkpoint controlled by Russian peackeepers and Azeri border guards, Azerbaijan, 26 September 2023. Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023 launched a brief military offensive on the contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway enclave that is home to some 120,000 ethnic Armenians. Following a ceasefire agreed on 20 September 2023, Azerbaijan opened all checkpoints with Armenia for the unimpeded exit of civilians from the disputed territory. The Armenian government announced the evacuation of more than 19,000 local residents from Nagorno-Karabakh, and a humanitarian center has been set up in the village of Kornidzor near the so-called Lachin corridor, the main route between Armenia and the breakaway region. Russian peacekeepers escorted convoys with civilians leaving Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia, the Russian defense ministry said. EPA-EFE/ROMAN ISMAYILOV

MOSCOW, (Reuters) – The control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway territory that was until recently controlled by ethnic Armenians, in the latest escalation of a decades-old conflict.

Developments over Karabakh could alter the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan is a major energy producer. The region is criss-crossed with oil and gas pipelines, though none are in close proximity to Karabakh itself.

Here is a short description of energy infrastructure in the region:

NUCLEAR

– Armenia is home to the Metsamor nuclear power station, which is already in a precarious situation due to earthquake risk.

OIL

– Azerbaijan’s primary route for oil exports is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which accounts for around 80% of country’s oil exports and runs via Georgia and on to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. It has capacity of 1.2 million barrels per day, or more than 1% of global oil supplies.

– Azerbaijan’s total oil exports in January-July 2023 were 23.1 million tons (800,000 bpd), of which 76.3% flowed through the BTC. The country’s oil output stood at 498,000 barrels per day in August.

– Azerbaijan also exports oil via Russia through the Baku-Novorossiisk pipeline and via Georgia by rail, as well as a pipeline from Baku to Supsa in Georgia.

NATURAL GAS

– Azerbaijan has plans to increase natural gas exports to Europe.

– Gas production from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) fields totalled 13.4 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022, while 25.2 bcm was produced from the Shah Deniz gas project, where BP is leading an international consortium.

Azerbaijan exported 6.6 bcm of natural gas to Europe in January-July.

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