Background: The European Union plans to use a revamped version of Operation Sophia in order to crack down on arms imports into Libya by conducting a maritime surveillance mission just outside of Libya’s waters. The EU Foreign Minister Borell believes that such a mission will help to prevent weapons from reaching the warring parties in Libya, and reduce temperatures within the country.
Global risk level – Low. The impact from this naval surveillance mission is likely to be minimal, given that a number of arms suppliers can transit the weapons through other routes, such as through Egypt. A concerted effort would need to be made to enforce a weapons embargo on all of Libya’s borders, not to mention that weapons could also be flown in by air and parachuted to factions in the country.
The Malta perspective: The surveillance mission will increase security to Malta’s south in an indirect fashion, but will not impact the situation on the ground in Libya considerably.
Malta risk level: Medium. The situation in Libya remains tense, and this will continue to present a problem for European Mediterranean countries on a number of levels. Instability in Libya will have adverse impacts on migratory flows, terrorism, oil prices and a number of other factors.
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