Attacks on Russia seen as prelude to Ukraine counteroffensive

Strikes on Russian infrastructure including drone attacks on refineries and train sabotage have multiplied in recent weeks, with experts suggesting they are part of Ukraine’s preparations for an expected spring offensive.

Agence France-Presse reports that Kyiv has not claimed any of the acts denounced by Moscow as Ukrainian “sabotage” of “unprecedented momentum”, but the majority appear to target Russian army supply chains in border regions and in annexed Crimea, a base for Russian troops.

A senior Ukrainian official, speaking anonymously, said that “these are standard measures for limiting the capabilities of the Russian armed forces”.

Oil facilities – essential for supplying the troops – appear to be the priority targets of the attacks, which have been generally carried out with drones.

The list of incidents has expanded on a near daily basis. On Thursday, a drone was shot down near an airbase in Sevastopol in the Crimea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. That same day, Russia’s southern Krasnodar and Rostov regions, both near Ukraine, reported drone strikes that caused fires. On Friday, another fire broke out at the same oil refinery in Krasnodar.

Over the past week, two fuel depots also caught fire, in and around Crimea, while last weekend an overnight Ukrainian strike on the Russian border village of Suzemka left four dead.

Also in Russia’s Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, two freight trains derailed earlier this week after explosive devices went off on the tracks.

In Other Developments

WAGNER GROUP

* Standing in a field of corpses, Russian Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published an expletive-ridden video personally blaming top defence chiefs for losses suffered by his fighters.

* He said his forces would withdraw from Bakhmut on May 10 – ending their involvement in the longest and bloodiest battle of the war – because of heavy losses and inadequate supplies.

GRAIN

* The pace of grain shipments from Ukraine under a U.N.-backed initiative has slowed as concerns grow over ships getting stuck if a deal is not renewed later this month, according to sources and data.

* Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations failed to authorize any new ships under the deal.

CONFLICT

* A drone attack on the Ilsky oil refinery in southern Russia, the second in as many days, has caused a fire, TASS news agency reported.

* Engineers have reduced the risk of a dam bursting and damaging the large Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine, a senior Russian official was quoted as saying by TASS news agency.

QUOTES

* “Because of the lack of ammunition, our losses are increasing exponentially every day,” Wagner Group mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said.

* “The colours give us an easier daily routine, because when everything is grey it’s much harder to deal with,” Olena Yukhymchuk, 37, said in a Kyiv park where pink cherry blossom contrasts with barbed wire and anti-tank barriers.