Cautious optimism that Covid cases plateauing in London – top disease expert
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A top UK infectious disease expert said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Covid cases, particularly in the 18-50 age group are beginning to plateau in London, and that he was expecting cases to come down in regions outside of the capital within one to three weeks.
Prof Neil Ferguson, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that I he was cautiously optimistic that infection rates in London in that key 18-50 age group, which has been driving the Omicron epidemic, may possibly have plateaued. “It’s too early to say whether they’re going down yet.”
He added that the current numbers cannot be sustained forever, so “we would expect to see case numbers start to come down in the next week, maybe already coming down in London, but in other regions a week to three weeks.”
Ferguson explained that “whether they then drop precipitously or we see a pattern a bit like we saw with Delta back in July – of an initial drop and then quite a high plateau – remains to be seen, it’s just too difficult to interpret current mixing trends and what the effect of open schools again will be.”
His views echoed those of Matthew Taylor, the chief executive of the NHS Confederation, who earlier on Tuesday noted that hospital admissions seem to have “perhaps plateaued in London or there may be a second peak after the new year now, but it’s rising across the rest of Britain”.
Taylor, speaking on Times Radio said that for many hospitals “the most pressing element of all” was the number of staff who are absent due to Covid.
