Updated: Election Watch – Malta’s candidates first count votes announced – Reports

Update 2155 Malta selects its representatives in the next European Election. Roberta Metsola, David Casa, Peter Agius were elected for the PN, and Alex Agius Saliba, Daniel Attard, and Thomas Bajada for the PL.

Meanwhile the turnout at European level was 51%. “This is a positive sign for European democracy,” Jaume Duch, the Director-General for Communication of the European Parliament and its Spokesperson told the international press in Brussels.

In another development Emanuel Macron calls a snap election in France.

Update – Arnold Cassola has missed out on a seat in the European Parliament, despite coming in third in first-preference votes cast on Saturday.  David Casa won most of Metsola’s second preference votes, and with the PN having assured itself of its third seat, a tussle was going on between Peter Agius and David Agius, with projections showing the former as the favourite. 

Update 2045 The European Parliament has just announced the first projection for the final result at European level and how the Parliament will be formed.

Update 2025: The Labour Party has won the European Parliament elections but with a majority slashed to around 7,700 votes and one less seat, projections by the political parties, reported by The times, show. Even the European Parliament announced that according to first projections show that both the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party have won 3 seats each in the European election held yesterday.

The EP also announced that the Labour Party secured 44.67% while the Nationalist Party got 42.52%. The remaining 12.81% were spread among candidates from different parties.

Malta Today has reported that in the European Parliament election, Nationalist MEP Roberta Metsola received an unprecedented 81,130 votes, setting a new record. Labour MEP Alex Agius Saliba garnered 58,316 votes, with independent candidate Arnold Cassola securing the third-highest number of first preference votes at 12,884. Initial tally of first-count votes places Metsola at the forefront within her party, with candidate Peter Agius following at 8,640, candidate David Agius at 5,315, and incumbent MEP David Casa at 3,354. They are trailed by Norma Camilleri with 978 votes, Lee Bugeja Bartolo with 609, Louise Pulis with 563, and Miriana Testaferrata de Noto with 408 votes.

Within the Labour party, Alex Agius Saliba led the way, followed by Daniel Attard with 10,634 votes and Thomas Bajada with 9,601. They were followed by Steve Ellul with 8,670 votes, Claudette Abela Baldacchino with 8,284, Clint Flores with 6,749, Marija Sara Vella Gafà with 3,095, Jesmond Bonello with 743, and Jesmond Marshall with 616 votes.

Far-right candidate Norman Lowell received 5,947 votes, closely followed by former Labour mayor Conrad Borg Manché with 5,453. ADPD leader Sandra Gauci garnered just 1,976 first-count votes, trailed by comedian James Ryder with 1,430 votes.

UPDATE 1845:The President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola has secured the first seat out of six Maltese seats at the European Parliament. As expected her support was resounding and it might have been the key to PN’s result.

The second candidate to get elected is Alex Agius Saliba. The number of votes has not been yet confirmed for both candidates.

The next candidate on the list would be Arnold Cassola. He’s an independent candidate and former chairperson of AD (later ADPD).

Conservative estimates show that the difference between the PL and the PN will be less than 15,000 votes. This has led to an analysis of election polls leading to the election is also being carried, as no such result was predicted.

Vincent Marmara’s recent prediction anticipated a significant difference of over 27,000 votes, representing a substantial 10.8% margin. The survey by The Times of Malta, published on 2 June, also missed the mark, foreseeing a gap of 30,500 votes in favor of Labour party with a 10.4% difference, based on a lower voter turnout compared to Marmara’s prediction. Just last Thursday, Malta Today’s survey projected a lead for Labour of over 24,000 votes, a considerable disparity from the actual outcome.

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Elsewhere : UPDATE 2000:

In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party, part of the Identity and Democracy group (ID), is estimated to secure six seats, marking a significant increase in its representation. If these estimates are validated, the Freedom Party will have effectively doubled its number of seats, overtaking both the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), each predicted to obtain 5 MEPs.

In Germany, the conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union has secured the top position in the country’s Sunday election, as per early estimates. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is expected to come in second, surpassing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). POLITICO reports that Germany’s ruling coalition suffered a crushing blow in the European Parliament election tonight, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats recording their worst result in a national vote in more than a century. The left-leaning coalition’s steep losses will likely renew questions over the government’s stability.

In Greece, initial exit polls reveal the ruling conservative New Democracy party leading by a significant margin, albeit with a noticeable weakening compared to previous support.

New Democracy is expected to receive between 28 percent and 32 percent, representing a decline from the 40.5 percent it secured last June in national elections. Furthermore, this falls short of the party’s target, which aimed to match its support in the last European election (33.1 percent).

The Partido Popular (PP) conservatives have secured a narrow victory in the elections in Spain according to an exit poll by RTVE and Forta.

With 32.4% of the votes, the PP is projected to gain between 21 and 23 MEPs, a significant increase from the current 13. Meanwhile, the socialists led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have maintained their position with 30.2% of the votes and are expected to secure 20 to 22 MEPs, in line with their current 21. The far-right party Vox is set to enhance its representation from 4 to between 6 and 7 MEPs. The leftist alliance of Sumar, Sánchez’s coalition partner, is likely to secure 3 to 4 seats, while the left-wing party Podemos is expected to gain between 2 and 3 legislators.

However, the most surprising development is the emergence of Se Acabó La Fiesta (“The Party Is Over”), a party established this year by social media personality Alvise Pérez, which identifies itself as anti-establishment. Analysts have linked it with far-right populism. According to the same poll, Se Acabó La Fiesta is projected to enter the European Parliament with 2 to 3 MEPs.

The far-right National Rally (RN) party, headed by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has achieved an impressive 31.5% of the votes in France, as per an exit poll. This marks the first occasion since 1984 that a French party has secured over 30% in European elections. This figure is twice the number of votes garnered by President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renew party (15.2%), which narrowly surpassed the Socialist Party for the second position, averting a potential double setback. The Socialists, guided by Raphael Glucksmann in these elections, had gained momentum over the past month with a bold pro-EU stance.

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UPDATE 1335: Malta’s Labour Party has earned the most votes in the EU election, however the gap between the two main parties got slashed from the 42k it had up till the 2019 elections.

Nationalist Party media said the gap between the two parties was between 15,000 and 20,000 votes (in the 2019 EU election, Labour finished more than 42,500 votes ahead).

If the predictions are right, it will be Labour’s narrowest EP victory since 2004, when it won by some 21,000 votes.

UPDATE 0815: Malta’s Electoral Commission published the approximate percentage voting turnout for this year’s European Parliament Elections.

Electoral Division	Registered voters	Votes Cast	Percentage
1	25,939	17,524	67.56%
2	27,192	18,847	69.31%
3	29,020	19,460	67.06%
4	26,786	18,743	69.97%
5	27,905	19,815	71.01%
6	27,495	18,991	69.07%
7	28,732	20,463	71.22%
8	26,779	17,620	65.80%
9	27,943	17,562	62.85%
10	29,933	16,861	56.33%
11	27,946	18,902	67.64%
12	31,799	18,544	58.32%
13	32,715	24,193	73.95%
1, 4 and 6 June, 2024 voting days	​	22,026	​
Total (registered voters)	370,184	269,551	72.82%
Total number of voters who collected their Voting Document	332,674	269,551	81.03%​

Compared to 2019, significant decreases in voter turnout were observed in the sixth and eighth districts, with declines seen across all districts. The most notable drop was documented in the 6th district, where it decreased by 6.55%, closely followed by the 8th district, which saw a decline of 6.19%. According to The Times, turnout also notably decreased in the 2nd and 4th districts, historically strongholds for the Labour Party, with decreases of 4.49 and 4.96 percentage points, respectively. All districts known for their support of the Labour Party experienced marked reductions in turnout, while smaller declines were seen in several PN-leaning districts, such as the 13th, 12th, and 9th.

Earlier Voters in Latvia, Malta, and Slovakia went to the polls on day three. Concurrently, the much-anticipated Italian election commenced on Saturday.

Media channels owned by Malta‘s main political parties indicate that the turnout for the EP elections will be around 72.6% and 72.8%. In 2019, the turnout was 72.7%. 37,217 voters did not collect their voting document.

Malta is home to the current president of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola who contested this election on the Nationalist Party’s (EPP) ticket. This is a variation from polling which took place in the previous weeks by several media outlets which highlighted potential absenteeism. It is not clear yet as whether this turnout will favour the ruling Labour Party (S&D) or the Nationalist Party (PPE).

Malta’s first European elections back in 2004 saw a turnout of just over 82%. In 2019, this dropped by 10 percentage, which although is high by European standards, is relatively low in Malta, where turnout for elections is normally very high.

An analysis of each district shows that in those districts where the Labour Party enjoyed a majority in the previous elections, and during pre-election polling showed a reluctance to vote and potential absenteeism there was a higher turnout than predicted. A lower turnout was registered in the 10th district, which traditionally is a district linked with the opposition Nationalist Party.

These are the projected turnouts according to the Labour Party’s media:

The quota is not known as yet, though it is expected to be between 35,000 and 40,000 votes.

The Nationalist Party main target is to reduce what the gap between the two main parties which has been abysmal for the party which ironically spearheaded Malta’s EU membership. Malta’s six seats were always evenly divided between the two parties, until the balance tipped in Labour’s favour in 2019 and the party managed to clinch a fourth seat at PN’s expense. This might have been a unique scenario and reflecting the general trend at the time and also due to the inheritance mechanism in the Maltese voting system. The thirteen independent candidates, a record for any election are to watch in terms of how they will fare, in the context of the potential absenteeism and non-voting intentions expressed in the polls to the run up of this election. Veteran politician Arnold Cassola was seen as one of the few independent candidates who can potentially make it. Another person who could attract a significant amount of votes is Imperium Europa Norman Lowell. If none make it, the way their votes will be inherited will be crucial to determine where the last of the six seats will go.

There are 39 candidates contesting the election.

The voter turnout for Latvia‘s recent election stood at 33.7%, marking a marginal increase from the 2019 figure of 33.5%. However, this turnout falls significantly short of the country’s historical high, which was achieved in 2009 when over half of eligible voters participated in the election. In Czechia, polling concluded at 2 pm, with initial reports indicating a promising increase in voter participation compared to five years ago in various constituencies. Just before the polls closed, the turnout in the two major cities, Prague and Brno, peaked at around 40%.

In Italy more than 47 million people in the European Union’s third-largest economy eligible to participate. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party is tipped to win — polls suggest it could achieve 27% of the vote, more than four times its support in 2019. Italy has 76 seats in the 720-seat European Parliament, and as DW reports, Meloni could play kingmaker over whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gets the backing she needs, from both member states and parliament, for a second term.

At the EU level, the initial projection of the new European Parliament is anticipated around 8:15-8:30 pm. These preliminary projections, derived from national estimates, will decisively offer the first insight into the potential composition of the Parliament.

Meanwhile in Denmark, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen had to cancel planned election events after being attacked in Copenhagen on Friday evening, just hours before the polls opened for the European election. The prime minister’s office stated that the attack caused minor whiplash, as reported by local media. According to a statement released on Saturday, the Danish leader is in good condition but was shaken by the incident.

Elections beyond one’s borders – Key Issues in Upcoming European Elections: Green Deal, Migration, and Defence Spending

The upcoming European elections represent a pivotal moment for the Green Deal. Launched in late 2019, the initiative aimed to position Europe as the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Despite initial momentum and significant legislative victories, such as the “Fit for 55” package, subsequent challenges have emerged. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis, and escalating inflation have all posed formidable obstacles. Additionally, contentious issues such as the withdrawal of a plan to reduce pesticide use in agriculture by 2030 have sparked widespread debate and protest. As the Green Deal confronts these challenges, its ultimate success remains uncertain.

Another pressing issue is migration. The policies around migration and asylum are testing the unity and solidarity that are meant to keep the 27-member bloc together. The anticipated rise in support for far-right parties in the June 6-9 polls is likely to lead to increased calls for stricter immigration controls, potentially straining the principle of solidarity between members even further. The EU’s current migratory policy stems from the substantial influx of migrants and refugees triggered by the Arab Spring and the civil war in Syria, which resulted in over 2.3 million crossings between 2015 and 2016. Earlier this year, EU lawmakers approved the New Pact on Immigration and Asylum, establishing a procedure to “filter” migrants at the EU’s borders and to return those with a low chance of obtaining asylum. While it upholds the so-called Dublin Regulation – where the first EU country of entry is responsible for examining asylum applications – the pact also requires that countries with fewer applicants either agree to accept more individuals or make a financial or material contribution to those with the highest number. The pact, which took almost four years of intense negotiations, was followed by 15 member states sending a letter to the European Commission, urging for more stringent measures and proposing the outsourcing of migration and asylum policy to neighboring countries.

Another issue will be the European budget spending on defence. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and ongoing threats from Russia, the EU is trying to become a self-sufficient military power. This would require significant increase in spending on defence. There isn’t a harmonised approach on the matter, in particular differences between some of the major economic European powers and the needs of the countries on the Eastern front of the EU.

The Dispatch Analysis is prepared by CDeNews and the geopolitical analysis unit at Corporate ID Group – Sources reviewed : DW/Euronews/Politico/One News/Net News/France 24/MaltaToday/Times of Malta / Euronews