Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response in case the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, as its Houthi allies in Yemen traded strikes with a Saudi-led coalition in a sharp escalation of regional fighting.
The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis said Thursday that the Iran-aligned group attacked a power distribution station in Medina that supplies electricity to the Prophet’s Mosque, one of Islam’s holiest sites. The coalition said the attack knocked one transformer out of service but did not affect the power network. A Houthi military source, quoted by the Houthi-run Saba news agency, denied the report and called it a “lie” meant to cover up Saudi Arabia’s failure to substantiate an earlier accusation that the Houthis targeted Mecca.
The coalition said an examination of drone wreckage confirmed Houthi involvement in Tuesday’s attack. It described the strike as part of repeated attempts to target the Two Holy Mosques and “provoke” Muslims worldwide, and said it would continue measures to protect the holy sites and pilgrims.
Strikes and counterstrikes in Yemen
The Houthis later reported Saudi strikes on the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and other areas. Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm them. A spokesperson for Yemen’s armed forces, which are aligned with the internationally recognized government, said coalition forces hit what he called “high-value targets” in Sanaa but gave no details.
The coalition also said it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward the southern Saudi city of Khamis Mushait, giving no immediate details on damage or casualties. Local officials said early Friday that the Houthis also targeted the coalition’s forces command headquarters in Aden with several ballistic missiles and drones. Neither side immediately commented.
The escalation is the most serious fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis since a U.N.-brokered truce largely halted cross-border attacks in 2022. Hostilities resumed this year after the Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in July and began attacking Saudi territory and shipping. Houthi forces also made major territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, and Saudi Arabia has responded with airstrikes and backing for government forces.
Two weeks ago, Saudi Arabia said it destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered restricted airspace over the city, the second alleged Houthi attempt to target Mecca since 2017. The Houthis denied targeting Mecca or any other Islamic holy site.
Iran plans for a wider response
In Tehran, senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond U.S.-linked assets to countries that support American military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East, according to three senior Iranian officials and an insider familiar with the discussions.
Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, commanders and officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response. No final decision has been made, but planning has intensified as neither side shows willingness to compromise.
Two officials said Tehran told allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran, preparing a coordinated response stretching “from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and outside the Middle East.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The deliberations follow seven months of conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Feb. 28. An April 8 ceasefire ended the 40-day war, but hostilities have continued sporadically.
Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group said Tehran is uncertain whether President Donald Trump will launch another major campaign or opt for limited strikes, such as on nuclear facilities. “But they seem determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the hope of reestablishing deterrence,” he said. Tehran is also weighing political risks for Trump, as polls show the war is unpopular and higher fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the midterm elections.
Diplomacy remains open, but prospects dim
Iran is keeping a negotiating channel open. At last week’s U.N. General Assembly, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days. Iranian authorities said it calls for an end to fighting, the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen funds and a waiver of oil sanctions.
Trump said Saturday he rejected the proposal. Iranian state media reported, however, that a U.S. response was delivered through Qatar on Tuesday and is under review. Iranian sources said Washington wants Iran’s disputed nuclear program included in talks, but Tehran insists nuclear negotiations can begin only after its seven conditions are met.
“Even if Iran does not reject the US response outright and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement,” one official said. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said Iran “cannot afford continuation of US blockades,” adding that “escalation at this point is conceivable.”
Costs of the conflict
The war has alternated between lulls and renewed strikes, killing thousands of civilians, degrading Iran’s military capabilities and damaging its fragile economy. For the U.S., it has failed to achieve Trump’s shifting goals while depleting Pentagon missile stockpiles.
Iran and its allies have sought to raise the cost for Washington by widening the conflict, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing risks to global energy markets. Iran has launched drone and missile attacks on U.S. allies in the Gulf, while the Houthis have targeted Saudi interests. Their advance toward Bab el-Mandeb has opened a second pressure point on global energy routes, giving the group leverage over the southern gateway to the Red Sea.
An insider close to decision-making said military pressure combined with a U.S. blockade that has cut off oil exports is becoming increasingly difficult for Iran’s clerical rulers to sustain.
Fear of unrest at home
That strain has fueled concerns about domestic stability. A former senior reformist Iranian official said the leadership fears a repeat of the nationwide protests that erupted in January, which authorities crushed, killing thousands of protesters. “Facing unrest at home – while the system is under US pressure and bombs – could pose a very serious challenge to the legitimacy of the ruling establishment,” he said.
As the anniversary approaches, authorities have tightened controls while encouraging loyalists to return to nightly gatherings. Amnesty International said in May that more than 6,000 people had been arrested since hostilities began, and a September U.N. investigators’ report cited mass arrests, torture and increased use of the death penalty.
