More people will die because of warmer climates than all infectious diseases – study
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The worrying and growing death toll from global warming will come close to surpassing the current number of deaths from all the infectious diseases combined if planet-heating emissions are not tackled, a major new study has found.
Rising temperatures are set to cause particular devastation in poorer, hotter parts of the world that will struggle to adapt to unbearable conditions that will kill increasing numbers of people, the research has found.
The study was published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The economic loss from the climate crisis, as well as the cost of adaption, will be felt around the world, including in wealthy countries.
In a high-emissions scenario where little is done to curb planet-heating gases, global mortality rates will be raised by 73 deaths per 100,000 people by the end of the century. This nearly matches the current death toll from all infectious diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/Aids, malaria, dengue and yellow fever.
The research used an enormous global dataset of death and temperature records to see how they are related, gathering not only direct causes such as heat stroke but also less obvious links such as a surge in heart attacks during a heatwave.
The report also dwelled into the economic cost of these deaths, which is set to be severe, costing the world 3.2% of global economic output by the end of the century if emissions aren’t kept in check. Each ton of planet-warming carbon dioxide emitted will cost $36.60 in damage in this high-emissions world, the researchers calculated.
This worst-case scenario would involve emissions continue to grow without restraint, causing the average global temperature increase to surpass 3C by 2100. The world has heated up by about 1C, on average, since the dawn of mass industrialization, an increase scientists say is already fueling increasingly severe heatwaves, wildfires, storms and floods.
A more moderate path, where emissions are rapidly cut, will see temperature-related deaths less than a third of the more severe scenario, the researchers found. The economic costs will be significantly lower, too.
