Russian gas supply gap casts chill in Europe as winter nears
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Europe needs to pay up to import liquefied natural gas, pray for a mild winter and cut energy demand as any sabotage of infrastructure or even deeper cuts to Russian supply would make power rationing or blackouts all but inevitable.
Even if Europe manages to stay warm and keep the lights on this winter, it will have a much bigger challenge to refill depleted storage next year than it did to meet a European Union goal to build stocks to 80% of capacity by November this year.
It has exceeded that goal and storage, currently around 90%, is a buffer, but the halt of gas through the Nord Stream network from Russia to Germany, leaves a gap despite increased supplies from elsewhere.
Russia progressively reduced gas flows through Nord Stream and also via other routes after Western sanctions in response to the Ukraine war that began in February. Gas via Nord Stream stopped completely in September.
Analysts put the gas shortfall at almost 15% of average European demand in winter, meaning the continent has to cut consumption to get through the peak demand heating season.
“The situation will remain very fragile,” Cuneyt Kazokoglu, director of energy economics at FGE, said.
“Household gas consumption in Germany jumped at the end of September to the highest level since March because of a cold spell, and demand was about 14% above the 2018-2022 four-year average. This is posing a threat,” he added.
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and one of the continent’s biggest importers of Russian gas, is most exposed to the supply disruption and has been especially active in developing plans to shelter its industries and consumers.
Any hope of the Nord Stream network resuming shipments to Germany was dashed last month by suspected sabotage.
European nations have said they are working on increasing security of critical infrastructure after explosions damaged Nord Stream 1 and also Nord Stream 2, which has never operated, but had been filled with gas in readiness.
Russian outages could yet worsen if Moscow makes good on its threat of sanctioning Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz, shutting one of the last functioning Russian gas routes to Europe.
