Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record
The world is on course for its hottest year on record as the planet is hit with warming from climate change and El Niño, scientists have told BBC News.
The warning comes as world leaders and negotiators gather in Turkey on Monday for the opening of COP31, the latest UN climate summit.
Berkeley Earth, the independent US research group behind the forecast, said that even with two months of the year left it is 95% confident that 2026 will surpass the previous record set in 2024.
The impact of rising heat has been felt acutely in recent months by countries attending COP, with extensive wildfires across Europe and the sudden glacier collapse in Nepal which killed more than 1,000 people.
“We have had a run of record warm years,” said Dr Robert Rohde, of Berkeley Earth. “That is what we expect as global warming progresses… glaciers collapsing, record-breaking heatwaves and droughts.”
On Friday, the EU’s Copernicus climate service confirmed that October was the hottest on record.
But Rohde warned this was just the start. “There is potential for much larger and much more dramatic changes down the line,” he said.
The main driver of rising global temperatures has been the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely caused by burning fossil fuels.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published its own report on Monday, and although more cautious than Berkeley, it has forecast that 2026 will be among the four warmest years on record.
It said that 2027 will provide no let-up, as an unusually powerful El Niño will continue into next year, pushing temperatures higher.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said it “gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts”.
Wes Streeting pointed to wildfires this summer and record heat, which the Met Office has said was made 130 times more likely by climate change, as well as increased risk of flooding this winter as a result of El Niño.
Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the Met Office, told BBC’s Panorama: “We’re designed for a climate of the 20th century that we don’t live in any longer, so it’s going to change all aspects of our lives.”
The additional greenhouse gases being added to the atmosphere have trapped additional heat and about 90% of that has been absorbed by the oceans.
That’s where El Niño comes in, said Saulo. “It doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release.”
This natural climate pattern is pushing global temperatures even higher.
The world is currently on track for 2.8C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century – all but guaranteed to exceed the goal of 1.5C set under the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
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