Global economy may avoid recession as inflation risks ease – J.P. Morgan

Global economy may avoid recession as inflation risks ease – J.P. Morgan

The global economy could avert a recession as data points to a potential soft landing, J.P. Morgan analysts said, while adding that the Federal Reserve might have "over-reacted" with the 75 basis point rate hike in July. A clutch of recent data from major economies is suggesting moderating inflation and wage pressures as well as stabilizing consumer confidence, the brokerage said in a note dated Monday. "The probability for soft landing has ticked up with moderating inflation and jobs prints, while at the same time, positioning remains at extreme lows," the brokerage added. Among stocks, the energy sector is trading…
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Europe heading for recession as cost of living crisis deepens

Europe heading for recession as cost of living crisis deepens

LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The euro zone is almost certainly entering a recession, with surveys on Monday showing a deepening cost of living crisis and a gloomy outlook that is keeping consumers wary of spending. While there was some easing of price pressures, according to the surveys, they remained high and the European Central Bank is under pressure as inflation is running at more than four times its 2% target, reaching a record 9.1% last month. It faces the prospect of raising interest rates aggressively just as the economy enters a downturn. A rise in borrowing costs would add…
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Euro zone investor morale edges up, recession still likely – Sentix

Euro zone investor morale edges up, recession still likely – Sentix

BERLIN, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Investor morale in the euro zone was essentially unchanged in August from the previous month, with a slight rise too little to stave off fears of recession in the 19-country currency bloc, a survey showed on Monday. Sentix's index for the euro zone inched up to -25.2 points from -26.4 in July. A Reuters poll had pointed to an August reading of -24.7. "The economic situation in the euro zone remains difficult," Sentix Managing Director Manfred Huebner said in a statement, adding the slight rise did not signal the all-clear. "A recession in the euro zone is…
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IMF chief says ‘cannot rule out’ possible global recession

IMF chief says ‘cannot rule out’ possible global recession

 (Reuters) - The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the outlook for the global economy had "darkened significantly" since April and she could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters the fund would downgrade in coming weeks its 2022 forecast for 3.6% global economic growth for the third time this year, adding that IMF economists were still finalizing the new numbers. The IMF is expected to release its updated forecast for 2022 and 2023 in late July, after slashing its forecast by nearly a full percentage point…
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World Bank’s Reinhart ‘skeptical’ global recession can be avoided

World Bank’s Reinhart ‘skeptical’ global recession can be avoided

World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said she is skeptical that the U.S. and global economies can dodge a recession, given spiking inflation, sharp hikes in interest rates and slowing growth in China. Reinhart, who returns to Harvard University on July 1 after a two-year public service leave, said it was historically a tall order to reduce inflation and engineer a soft landing at the same time, and recession risks are clearly a "hot topic" at the moment. “What worries everybody is that all the risks are stacked on the downside," Reinhart told Reuters in a remote interview, citing a series of…
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U.S. recession “more likely than not”, same for Europe – PIMCO

U.S. recession “more likely than not”, same for Europe – PIMCO

June 30 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession over the next 12 months is "probably more likely than not", PIMCO's global chief investment officer for fixed income Andrew Balls said on Thursday. Balls, speaking at a media webinar, put the probability at close to 50% or slightly higher. "A recession is not the only important thing. You're clearly going to see a significant growth slowdown," Balls said. "The inflation profile in the short term is very important. Central banks are focused on inflation credibility". The probability of a recession is similar in Europe, possibly a bit higher, he added. Balls also said that…
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Recession fears creep into ECB thinking at summer conference

Recession fears creep into ECB thinking at summer conference

SINTRA, Portugal, June 30 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers put on a brave face at their annual gathering in the hills above the Portuguese capital and forecast further economic expansion despite looming gas shortages, but in private conversations recession fears were increasingly dominant. Growth has slowed sharply this year amid the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine, negating the economic rebound from pandemic lockdowns and raising the risk that any further escalation in the conflict could choke off whatever growth is still left. That would complicate life for the ECB, which is preparing for its first interest rate hike in over…
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Euro zone economic activity risks double-dip recession

Euro zone economic activity risks double-dip recession

Euro zone economic activity slipped back into decline this month as a second wave of the coronavirus sweeps across the continent, heightening expectations for a double-dip recession, surveys showed on Friday. Renewed restrictions to control the pandemic forced many businesses in the bloc's dominant service industry to limit operations, and nearly 90% of economists polled by Reuters this week said there was a high risk the coronavirus resurgence would halt the nascent euro zone economic recovery. "The euro zone PMI confirms that the second wave of the coronavirus is weighing more and more on the economy. A double-dip in the…
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Multinationals expected to help Ireland’s economy to bounce back

Multinationals expected to help Ireland’s economy to bounce back

Irish economic data and surveys released since the second quarter suggest the economy bounced back sharply as activity resumed in many sectors but moderated last month after repeatedly stalled moves to reopen all sectors. Ireland's gross domestic product fell by 6.1% quarter-on-quarter from April to June, as the large multinational sector sheltered the national accounts from the worst of the COVID-19 crisis and brought about a shallower recession than most of the euro zone. The impact of restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 varied across the economy, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said, with the dominant industrial sector up…
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EU finance ministers agree on €500 billion emergency plan to combat Covid-19 recession

EU finance ministers agree on €500 billion emergency plan to combat Covid-19 recession

EU finance ministers agreed on a compromise strategy Thursday to fight the coronavirus economic fallout with emergency credit lines and spending plans — but no corona bonds. EU member states have agreed to an emergency response plan of €500 billion. "This proposal contains bold and ambitious proposals that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago", the Portuguese Finance minister and president of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno said in a video conference on Thursday. "We can all remember the response to the financial crisis of the last decade, when Europe did too little too late. This time around is…
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Britain’s economy avoids recession

Britain’s economy avoids recession

Britain’s economy avoided a recession in the third quarter after it expanded by 0.3% but the annual pace of growth was the slowest for nearly 10 years as Brexit uncertainty depressed business activity. Official figures showed the UK returned to growth between July and September after a dip of 0.2% in the three months to the end of June. A technical recession is defined by two successive quarters of negative growth. There were fears that Brexit uncertainty might have pushed the economy into further negative growth but Britain’s services sector – which encompasses a range of industries from film and…
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Global economy enters a ‘synchronised stagnation’ period – FT

Global economy enters a ‘synchronised stagnation’ period – FT

The global economy has entered a period of “synchronised stagnation” with weak growth in some countries and no growth or a mild contraction in others, according to research by the Brookings Institution think-tank and the Financial Times. Headline economic indicators have slipped to their lowest levels since the spring of 2016, with real activity in both advanced and emerging economies losing momentum, compounded by falling economic confidence, the latest update of the tracking index has found. Only relatively strong performance in financial markets stopped the index from falling further into negative territory. Although there are few signs yet of the…
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Italy in danger of entering recession

Italy in danger of entering recession

The CSC research unit of Italian industrial employers' confederation Confindustria said Monday that Italy is "still on the threshold of zero growth" and "risks falling into recession in the case of new shocks". The CSC report said that Italy's growth rate is set to be flat in 2019 and in 2020 if rises value-added tax that are set to kick in next year are not averted. It said that the state of the public finances is better than that is reported in the updated version of the government's DEF economic blueprint. It called for an effort to bring about a…
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German government insists economy not heading for pronounced recession

German government insists economy not heading for pronounced recession

Europe’s largest economy is not facing a bigger downturn or a pronounced recession after contracting slightly in the second quarter but there are no signs of a turnaround yet either, the German Economy Ministry said on Friday. The German economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period and some weak data since then has fuelled concerns that the economy could slip into recession in the July-September period. This week several institutes said the economy would slide into recession in the third quarter. “The German economy is going through a weak phase,” the ministry said in its monthly report. “A…
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Warning of higher risk of recession in Germany

Warning of higher risk of recession in Germany

There is an almost 60% chance that the German economy could fall into recession, according to a monthly index gauging the health of Europe’s largest economy published on Thursday by the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK). The forward-looking index by the private economic research body put the risk of recession at 59.4%, up from 43% in August. This is its highest recession risk reading since the winter months of 2012/2013. The German economy has weakened as its export-dependent manufacturing sector languishes in recession due to trade conflicts and uncertainty linked to Britain’s planned departure from the European Union which have stifled…
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Concerns mount over German’s economy after slump in manufacturing orders

Concerns mount over German’s economy after slump in manufacturing orders

Concerns over the health of the German economy are mounting, after Europe’s largest economy suffered another big fall in manufacturing orders. Germany factory orders plunged by 1.6% in December, new figures released this morning show, due to weak demand from overseas. That’s much worse than the 0.3% rise which economists had expected, and follows a 0.2% decline in November. The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far. The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now. Such a weak result shows that Germany’s…
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Salvini on the recession :  I do not care much to talk about data fixed the Istat

Salvini on the recession : I do not care much to talk about data fixed the Istat

"There will be no government crisis and I will not pose a problem: I am counting on honoring the government contract with Di Maio, who is a serious person. The Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini in Porta a Porta, speaking about the possibility ventilated by Forza Italia's leader Silvio Berlusconi of a future alliance said "At a local level, things are different. About the recession issue, Salvini said "I do not care much to talk about data fixed the Istat ... I care that the Bot have double request .." he adds, " At the end of this year…
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