Europe is going back into lockdown. After France and Belgium announced lockdowns kicking in on midnight Friday and Monday, respectively, a string of other countries is following suit today.
During the week, EU Council President Charles Michel said that “Our hospitals and health workers are again under pressure. That is why many leaders have announced lockdowns and restrictions. In such hard times, cohesion and solidarity matter more than ever. We call on all Europeans to take care of themselves and of each other.”
Von Der Leyen said “numbers of cases are rising, numbers of hospitalisations are rising, numbers of deaths are rising – not as fast fortunately, because we understand better today how to treat COVID-19-patients and how to deal with the disease. But the spread of the virus will overwhelm our healthcare systems if we do not act urgently. And it is important to act coherently across the European Union.”
The ECDC data from across the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) and the United Kingdom (UK) confirm that there has been a considerable further increase in COVID-19 infections and the current situation represents a major threat to public health. In most countries, notification rates have increased in certain regions, with extremely high levels in some areas. Moreover, in addition to the substantial increases seen in most countries among younger age groups, notification rates have also increased in older age groups. Reported test positivity has been steadily increasing since August and has shown a marked escalation in recent weeks, pointing to a real increase in rates of viral transmission, rather than just a rise in reported cases attributable to increased testing. Vulnerability to infection remains high, as available data from seroprevalence studies indicate that the level of immunity in the population is <15% in most areas of the EU/EEA and the UK.
As the epidemiological situation has worsened across the region, the impact in terms of pressure on healthcare services and mortality has become increasingly evident. Data on hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and occupancy are incomplete for most EU/EEA countries and the UK, but available data indicate that the situation is deteriorating, with increasing trends reported in most countries. Recent estimates suggest that levels of hospital and ICU occupancy across the region are now at around a third of the peak that occurred during the spring. Options for treatment of individuals with severe infection remain largely supportive.
Many countries have reported increasing death rates, and the overall death notification rate has been rising for over a month. Although case fatality rates are currently lower than they were earlier in the year, due to increased detection among young people and/or improved care for patients with severe COVID-19, there is a high likelihood that these rates will continue to rise. In fact, with high levels of community transmission, the protection of medically vulnerable individuals becomes more difficult and, it is inevitable that more individuals who are not considered medically vulnerable will develop severe disease.
Actions: Greece will close bars, restaurants and other venues in the country’s most populous areas from Tuesday for one month, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said today. Schools and nurseries will remain open. Businesses such as gyms, cosmetic studios and brothels, as well as cultural venues, such as theaters and cinemas, will also shut.
England may soon face a lockdown until December 1, U.K. media reported today. Under the new “stay at home” order, all but essential shops would close; educational facilities, such as schools and universities, would remain open. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with Cabinet earlier on Saturday, and a press conference is due to take place later today.
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz announced a new lockdown, which will come into effect on Tuesday midnight. Cultural, sports and other leisure events will no longer take place. However, while restaurants will have to close, commerce including services like hairdressers will remain open, as part of efforts to keep the economy running. Social interactions at home will be restricted, and there will be a curfew between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m. specifically for social visits (exercise outdoors, for example, is possible after 8 pm.). University and some high-school classes will shift online while childcare facilities remain open.
Austria confirmed another 5,349 cases on Saturday after a record of 5,627 on Friday. The “tough measures are aimed at, once again, bringing down the numbers” and shielding the health system, Kurz said at a press conference.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, said in her weekly podcast today that Germany’s new restrictions, which were announced earlier this week and kick in Monday, were aimed at “stopping the rapid rise in infections before our health system is overburdened.”
According to the latest data available to ECDC, the countries whose rates and/or trends cause them to be categorised as of serious concern include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, France, Hungary,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
These countries have been categorised as ‘of serious concern’ on account of having high or increasing case notification rates and/or test positivity ≥3%, as well as high notification rates in the older age groups and/or high mortality rates. Germany is also included in this group of countries with an epidemiological situation ‘of serious concern’. The country also has increasing notification rates in the elderly, however due to technical issues, age-specific notification rates could not be reported through TESSy.
Although there has been a general increase in the levels of testing across all countries, which has resulted in the identification of additional cases who are asymptomatic or have experienced a mild form of the disease, this
increase in testing does not explain the full epidemiological picture in these countries. In fact, the concurrent increase in test positivity observed in many countries, which for some has been accompanied by an increase in
hospital and ICU admissions, indicates an escalating epidemiological situation. Therefore, the overall probability of infection for the population in these countries is very high.
In many of these countries, the notification rates in some sub-national areas are very high, and rates in other areas have been increasing. A number of the countries have seen a recent escalation in the notification rates for
the older groups. This is of particular concern as the elderly are at increased risk of severe disease. Hospital and ICU admissions and occupancy have been increasing and some sub-national areas have already signalled that there is significant pressure on their healthcare services. Treatment of individuals with severe infection remains largely supportive. While improved care and better detection of infections among younger people may partially explain the lower mortality than earlier in the year, countries are already experiencing, or may observe increasing
death rates if transmission continues to rise.
ECDC / POLITICO / Reuters /CDE
