2024 is an election year unlike any other in history. Of course, simply holding an election does not guarantee that the process will be free or fair; however, elections with all-but-certain outcomes can still be worth watching.
The elections are taking place in a variety of countries, including strong democracies, those that have only recently begun the process, and autocratic ones.
Countries that account for nearly half of the global population will vote. This is the first time that so many elections will be held in such a short period of time.
In all in 2024 over 50 countries will go to the polls that will test even the strongest democracies.
In all seven out of the world’s 10 most populous nations – Bangladesh, India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia and Mexico – will vote this year.
While some elections face concerns of fairness and freedom, the collective impact of these democratic processes will undoubtedly shape the course of the 21st century.
First on the list was Bangladesh that saw incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is obtain a fifth term in office after an intense crackdown on the opposition. A vote that brought the country closer to becoming a de facto one-party state and reversing its democratic course.
Then, the people went to the polls in Taiwan igniting furthermore the tension with China. The United States is an essential international ally of Taiwan and provides Taipei with the means for self-defence. Hence, the Taiwanese elections have also become a theatre for the competing interests of China.
Lai Ching-te won a decisive victory in this election to become Taiwan’s next president after millions of voters cast ballots in national elections. China has in the past called Lai a dangerous separatist because he rejects China’s claim on Taiwan.
January also saw the start of the traditional Republican internal elections in Iowa that set off the race to the White House.
A race that will culminate on November 5, when the US will vote for its president, all seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the seats in the Senate.
All is indicating that no candidates, besides current president Joe Biden and Trump, are likely to stand a chance unless a legal problem or health issue comes up.
A Trump victory will mean American isolationism affecting other parts of the world not least Ukraine and its European neighbours.
The outcome of US elections will influence the rest of the world and the first election results of the Republican primaries may be a harbinger of what is yet to come.
Russia will see Vladimir Putin contesting a sure-win re-election campaign, the March presidential election is being held in the backdrop of the Ukrainian war and may be viewed as a potential indicator of his support.
In Ukraine, it is unclear whether the planned 2024 presidential election will take place, even though incumbent leader Volodomyr Zelensky has stated that he intends to seek another term and that his popularity remains high.
Portugal will hold a snap election in March after António Costa, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, unexpectedly resigned last year. The far-right Chega party is expected to win around 15% of the vote, more than doubling its share since the 2022 election.
Another much-anticipated vote will be held in the UK which embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised to call at some point in 2024 and with the opposition Labour Party likely to come out on top.
The world’s fifth most populous country, Pakistan, is meant to be holding elections in February that have been widely criticized as neither free nor fair apart from the doubt if they even happen at all. The run-up to the election has been rife with legal battles, protests, violence and armed attacks on campaigners.
Then between April and May, neighbour and adversary India goes to the poll.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to extend his rule over the world’s most populous country in this year’s election, where he is expected to win a third term. His Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party won three of four state elections held at the end of last year, giving his party a boost ahead of the upcoming general election.
Iran’s legislative election is significant for both domestic policies and its role in the Middle East. The outcome may have an impact on regional stability and Iran’s relations with the international community. The focus is on the possibility of changes in Iran’s approach to nuclear negotiations and regional conflicts, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine.
Another anticipated election with far-reaching consequences is that for the European Parliament.
A total of 720 MEPs will be elected in these elections that will take place from June 6 to June 9 – the only directly elected transnational assembly globally. These elections take place across all 27 EU member countries.
Even though June is still a way off, all signs point to a strong showing by the far-right, and not much will likely change in the run-up to June.
There will be major political changes in several other countries in 2024.
Venezuela holds a pivotal election amid political unrest and economic hardships, which could determine the country’s future course. In March, Turkey will hold elections to determine the direction of its foreign and domestic policies.
With its election scheduled for February 25, Belarus is at a turning point in its political development that could lead to changes in the country’s system of government. On October 6, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and on October 26, Georgia, respectively, face political changes that could affect the stability of their respective regions.
A sign of the times is that countries with upcoming elections are also vulnerable to misinformation and disinformation, with the latter referring to the deliberate dissemination of false information for political or other purposes.
A panel of over 1,000 experts surveyed by the World Economic Forum ranked the issue as the most serious threat to India out of 34 risks. It was identified as the sixth-largest risk out of 34 in the United States, and the eleventh largest in Mexico and the United Kingdom.
Tonio Galea is Editor of Corporate ID Group’s http://www.cde.news
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