Warning of potentially the strongest El Niño in living memory

Britain’s Met Office said Friday that the developing El Niño weather pattern was likely to be the strongest in living memory and potentially the largest such event since the 19th century.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months. Its effects on weather around the world can threaten crops.

The Met Office said 2026 was likely to be remembered for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory and possibly the largest such event since the 19th century.

It also said 2027 was very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.

The Met Office’s latest forecasts showed equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures rising by more than 3 degrees Celsius later this year. A typical El Niño produces a rise of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, while a 2-degree increase is considered a major event.

“This implies that if the forecast is accurate — and other forecast systems show similar extreme values — then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting.