Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024

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Nov 16 (Reuters) – Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies.

The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year’s growth seen slowing to 2.6%.

Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of “mild recessions” in Europe and the UK.

A soft-landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China’s growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
Goldman Sachs2.60%2.10%4.80%0.90%0.6%6.3%
Morgan Stanley2.80%1.90%4.20%0.50%-0.1%6.4%
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)Federal funds target rate (Dec ’24)
Headline CPICore PCE
Goldman Sachs2.40%2.60%5.13%
Morgan Stanley2.10%2.70%4.375%
Wells Fargo2.50%2.60%4.75%-5.00%

The Fed’s main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%

S&P 500 targetUS 10-year yield targetEUR/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CNY
Goldman Sachs47004.55%1.10150.007.15
Morgan Stanley450011407.5
Wells Fargo4600-48004.75%-5.25%1.08-1.12136-140

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