Nov 16 (Reuters) – Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year’s growth seen slowing to 2.6%.
Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of “mild recessions” in Europe and the UK.
A soft-landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China’s growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
| Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 | ||||||
| GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA | |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.60% | 2.10% | 4.80% | 0.90% | 0.6% | 6.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.80% | 1.90% | 4.20% | 0.50% | -0.1% | 6.4% |
| UBS | 2.60% | 1.10% | 4.40% | 0.60% | 0.6% | 6.2% |
| U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024) | Federal funds target rate (Dec ’24) | ||
| Headline CPI | Core PCE | ||
| Goldman Sachs | 2.40% | 2.60% | 5.13% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.10% | 2.70% | 4.375% |
| UBS | 2.70% | 2.75% | |
| Wells Fargo | 2.50% | 2.60% | 4.75%-5.00% |
The Fed’s main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%
| S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY | |
| Goldman Sachs | 4700 | 4.55% | 1.10 | 150.00 | 7.15 |
| Morgan Stanley | 4500 | 1 | 140 | 7.5 | |
| UBS | 4600 | 3.60% | 1.15 | 130 | 7.15 |
| Wells Fargo | 4600-4800 | 4.75%-5.25% | 1.08-1.12 | 136-140 |
