Ipsos poll shows tie on eve of Peru’s election, with Fujimori slightly ahead

Keiko Fujimori's presidential campaign closure in Lima, ahead of second round of voting
Reading Time: 2 minutes

An Ipsos poll on Saturday afternoon showed Peru’s runoff presidential election still locked in a statistical tie, but right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori is slightly ahead of leftist Pedro Castillo, by a 0.7 percentage point margin.

Peruvians will head to the polls on Sunday in a bitterly divisive election that has pitted Fujimori, the daughter of jailed ex-President Alberto Fujimori, against Castillo, a little-known elementary school teacher.

Voters are divided by class and geography, with urban and higher-income Peruvians leaning toward Fujimori, and poorer, rural Peruvians leaning toward Castillo.

The Ipsos poll, which was conducted on Saturday and seen by Reuters, puts Fujimori at 44.8% of the vote and Castillo at 44.1% of the vote. Another 11.1% of voters would not vote for either candidate.

Ipsos said the poll had a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points and a sample size of 5,117.

Ipsos follows two other pollsters who have now put Fujimori slightly ahead, although still in statistical-tie territory.

Pollster IEP Saturday morning put Fujimori 0.1 percentage point ahead of Castillo, according to the results seen by Reuters. A poll on Friday by pollster CPI had Fujimori 0.2 percentage point ahead.

The race remains too close to call and all polls show a statistical tie, but Saturday’s polls show Fujimori’s best performance so far.

It is illegal within Peru to publish polls during the last week before a presidential election, although the surveys can be carried out as long as local media do not publish them. (Reporting by Marco Aquino and Marcelo Rochabrun; Editing by Leslie Adler)


Photo The candidate for the Presidency of Peru Keiko Fujimori, from the Fuerza Popular party, celebrates during an event marking the closure of her campaign ahead of the second round of presidential elections, at the Las Palomas oval in the Villa El Salvador district in Lima, Peru, 03 June 2021. On 06 June, Keiko will face Pedro Castillo of the Peru Libre party, with whom she waged a tense political campaign, intensified in recent weeks. In the second presidential round, more than 25 million Peruvians are summoned to the polls to elect the person who will govern Peru for the next five years. EPA-EFE/John Reyes EPA-EFE/John Reyes