Politico: June is not supposed to be the rainy season in Brussels.
Migration and asylum. Eurozone. Brexit. Poland and the rule of law. A trade war with Washington. The EU’s long-term budget.
The agenda is so crowded and the issues so snarled that the Council summit is starting to look like Brussels traffic on a day when several tunnels are unexpectedly closed for roadworks with no indication of when they might reopen.
In a remarkable sign of just how busy and controversial an agenda leaders will face when they arrive a week from Thursday, two of the issues expected to generate relatively little disagreement are Brexit and the EU’s seven-year budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).
The June summit now stands to pose the toughest test yet of Council President Donald Tusk’s pledge to get the EU’s 28 to take control of the hardest issues and make difficult decisions that they can defend to their voters. With each country potentially wielding a veto on most issues, it is far easier said then done.
At the top of the list of divisive matters is the asylum and migration issue, which is once again tearing at the fabric of Europe, most notably in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is at risk of collapsing because of a fight with her coalition partner, the Christian Social Union.
EU officials and European diplomats and ministers have been closely monitoring the situation in Germany, including scouring the German press for any signs of where Merkel may take the debate. “In her last interview, she kind of showed flexibility in finding a solution,” said a minister from a small EU nation. “I don’t know the latest state of play.”
Macron has been pushing hard for changes to the eurozone, amid resistance from Merkel, but diplomats said the leaders appear close to an agreement on the creation of a European Monetary Fund and other reforms, though likely not as ambitious as Macron would like.
On Brexit, no breakthroughs are expected before the summit, which will put pressure on negotiators in the U.K. and at the European Commission, but effectively spare the leaders from spending too much time fretting about the lack of progress in clinching a final divorce agreement.
The summit will mark the debut of two new leaders — Prime Ministers Pedro Sánchez of Spain and Giuseppe Conte of Italy. Conte, in particular, will be the subject of much interest given the unusual hybrid nature of Italy’s new government, made up of the far-right League party and populist 5Stars.
Many officials are wondering if Conte has any authority to take decisions, or if Italy will now present a repeat of the current experience with Poland, in which the leader of the governing Law and Justice party, Jarosław Kaczyński, is actually the one calling the shots.
