Sept 27 (Reuters) – Slovak opposition party SMER-SSD, led by former prime minister Robert Fico, held a narrowing lead over its liberal challenger Progresivne Slovensko ahead of a Sept. 30 election, according to IPSOS agency’s final poll published on Wednesday.
The poll, conducted for news website http://www.dennikn.sk, surveyed 1,000 participants between Sept. 22 and Sept. 25, put support for SMER-SDD at 20.6% to 19.8% for Progresivne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia – PS). PS jumped by 2.6 percentage points, while SMER-SSD rose by 0.3 percentage points from a poll taken between Sept. 15 and Sept. 19.
The poll showed eight parties would win seats in the parliament. However, none would secure a majority and would need to rely on partners to rule. How coalition building could develop was far from certain.
Slovaks head to the polls earlier than planned after a centre-right coalition government collapsed last year and a caretaker government took over in May.
Illegal migration and Slovakia’s support for Ukraine have been among top issues for parties campaigning, with Fico looking to return his SMER-SSD party to power with pledges to defend national interests and end military support for Kyiv.
That would be a shift in policy that Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Simecka has warned could push the country into isolation. He has promised to maintain support for Ukraine as it fights a Russian invasion, in line with EU and NATO partners.
| SMER-SSD | HLAS | Progresivne Slovensko | SaS | OLANO-led coalition | Republika | KDH | SME RODINA | SNS | DEMOKRATI | |
| Sept 27 | 20.6 | 11.9 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| Sept 21 | 20.3 | 13.1 | 17.2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| August | 19.7 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| July/August | 20.3 | 13.4 | 16.9 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.6 |
| July | 19.4 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| June | 18.9 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| May | 16.9 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| April | 16.8 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| March | 16.2 | 16.0 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 3.0 | |
| January 2023 | 13.6 | 18.2 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 2.9 | |
| November | 15.6 | 19.7 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 |
NOTE: threshold for parties to win seats is 5% and 7% for coalitions
Party descriptions:
* SMER-SSD- Direction-Slovak Social Democracy (leftist party of three-time prime minister Robert Fico)
* HLAS- Voice (leftist party of former prime minister Peter Pellegrini who split from SMER)
* Progresivne Slovensko- Progressive Slovakia (liberal party)
* SaS-Sloboda a Solidarita- Freedom and Solidary (liberal former ruling party)
* OLANO- Ordinary People and Independent Personalities-OLANO (centrist, anti-graft former ruling party)
* Republika- Republic (far-right party)
* KDH- Christian Democrat Movement (Christian conservative party)
* SME RODINA- We Are Family (centrist former ruling party)
* SNS- Slovak National Party (nationalist party)
* DEMOKRATI- Democrats (centrist, pro-European party led by former prime minister Eduard Heger)
