The Day of the Brexit Deal Vote (Take 2) – Brexit News Update
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MPs will vote on Theresa May’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement tonight. The probability that it passes become more remote than ever.
There are huge range of possible outcomes if MPs vote ‘no’ to Mrs May’s Brexit deal – these broadly include no deal, a “managed” no deal, a pivot to a Norway-style relationship, a second referendum, a General Election – or a second vote of some kind, perhaps after a renegotiation phase with Europe. The problem is that it is not clear at the moment that there is a consensus in Parliament for any one of these options.
This is leading to warnings of a constitutional crisis if Parliament cannot find a way to move forward. It is also worth remembering that, at present, the only certainty is that in the absence of any other action by Parliament of the government, the UK will leave the European Union on March 29 2019. This is the default legal position – although ironically given the total lack of consensus in Parliament, there does appear to be a majority in Parliament against allowing this to happen. By what precise means it can be stopped is not yet clear.
Ahead of tonight’s big House of Commons vote on Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement, MPs will first decide on a series of attempts to shape the Brexit process.
Tabled as amendments to the main motion on the prime minister’s Brexit deal, a number of MPs will hope to get the backing of a majority of the House of Commons for their plans. The government could also support – whether explicitly or not – some of the amendments.
Not all amendments will be voted on, with those to be picked at the discretion of the House of Commons’ Speaker John Bercow.
Business Leaders
Business leaders have given a last minute warning to MPs about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, saying the future of hundreds of thousands of jobs is in their hands, the Press Association reports. Industry groups have been calling for clarity over the UK leaving the EU, making it clear that the years of uncertainty have already affected investment plans.
BackStop
Speaking at a Westminster event alongside former Brexit secretaries David Davis and Dominic Raab, DUP leader Arlene Foster has repeated her demand for the PM to drop the so-called backstop arrangement from her Brexit deal.
Second Referendum
Labour MP Chuka Umunna is calling for his party to back a second EU referendum by the end of this week.
Jeremy Corbyn is currently determined to try and force a general election, having promised to table a motion of no confidence in the government “soon”.
There are mixed views about whether a Prime Minister can table such an important piece of legislation, lose the vote, and then survive. Clearly her authority will be severely damaged.
She could choose to resign, or to fight on – a possibility given the lack of an obvious consensus in the Tory Party around an alternative candidate.
Should she choose to resign, the party will be looking for new leadership. This will either be contested (a process that takes 6-8 weeks) or, as last time when Mrs May was chosen, the new prime minister could be appointed by acclamation if all the other candidates all backed out. This could take a week or 10 days. The time taken to complete a contested leadership election will probably require the UK to ask for a temporary extension of Article 50.
